Storm on, but path and intensity unclear

BHUBANESWAR: The low pressure area expected to form over Bay of Bengal in next 48 hours may build into a tropical cyclone after October 22, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday said. Ending its quiet, the national forecaster issued an advisory which stated the system is very likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm over west-central Bay of Bengal. 

The official word sent Odisha Government into preparatory mode. It alerted coastal districts and asked Collectors and senior officials not to leave headquarters. Special Relief Commissioner-in-charge Satyabrata Sahu reviewed the situation and said leaves of employees of administrative departments that deal with disaster mitigation stand cancelled.

The IMD, however, maintained that the path and intensity remains unclear. It clarified that there wouldn’t be any significant change in weather condition in the State for the next five days. After its formation, the low pressure will track west-northwestwards and turn into a depression by October 22 morning after which it may intensify into a cyclonic storm, the national weather agency stated. 

The Joint Typhoon Warning Centre issued its first bulletin which said upper-level analysis indicated the current system is in a favourable environment for development with low vertical wind sheer offset by moderate divergence aloft and sea surface temperature in the range of 28 degree to 30 degree C. The minimum sea level pressure hovering around 1005 mb is also ideal for its development. 

Storm path and intensity unclear, Odisha in readiness

Several global weather models have already predicted cyclogenesis and indicated different courses for the system. The GFS model, developed by American National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, hinted at the system brushing past northern Odisha coast into West Bengal-Bangladesh borders.
Another model too toed the same line whereas other pointed at a close encounter of the storm with the State.

However, Bhubaneswar Meteorological Centre director HR Biswas said path and intensity of the storm still remains unclear. “We are continuously tracking it,” he said. Dr Sandeep Pattnaik, assistant professor of School of Earth Ocean and Climate Sciences in IIT-Bhubaneswar, said chances of the storm moving towards north Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and West Bengal coast is more because of high pressure zones on the sides of Arabian Sea and Myanmar. 

A high pressure area, also known as anti-cyclone, is expected to form over Arabian Sea by October 22. This may partially block the system in Bay of Bengal which will be in depression stage then from moving towards Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast. Besides another high pressure region expected to occur around the same time in Myanmar region, may prevent the system from moving towards Bangladesh. 

“All these factors make Odisha more vulnerable to the storm, both in north AP-Odisha and Odisha-West Bengal zones,” Dr Pattnaik said. Director of Centre for Environment and Climate of SOA University Sarat Chandra Sahu said the system is expected to move in the north-northwest direction towards Tamil Nadu till October 22 after which it may move towards Odisha coast. More clarity regarding its track will be known after the system is formed, he said.

Closing in

Storm may form after October 22

Path, intensity unclear

Odisha Govt alerts coastal dists

Collectors, senior officials not to leave headquarters

BHUBANESWAR: The low pressure area expected to form over Bay of Bengal in next 48 hours may build into a tropical cyclone after October 22, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday said. Ending its quiet, the national forecaster issued an advisory which stated the system is very likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm over west-central Bay of Bengal.  The official word sent Odisha Government into preparatory mode. It alerted coastal districts and asked Collectors and senior officials not to leave headquarters. Special Relief Commissioner-in-charge Satyabrata Sahu reviewed the situation and said leaves of employees of administrative departments that deal with disaster mitigation stand cancelled. The IMD, however, maintained that the path and intensity remains unclear. It clarified that there wouldn’t be any significant change in weather condition in the State for the next five days. After its formation, the low pressure will track west-northwestwards and turn into a depression by October 22 morning after which it may intensify into a cyclonic storm, the national weather agency stated.  The Joint Typhoon Warning Centre issued its first bulletin which said upper-level analysis indicated the current system is in a favourable environment for development with low vertical wind sheer offset by moderate divergence aloft and sea surface temperature in the range of 28 degree to 30 degree C. The minimum sea level pressure hovering around 1005 mb is also ideal for its development.  Storm path and intensity unclear, Odisha in readiness Several global weather models have already predicted cyclogenesis and indicated different courses for the system. The GFS model, developed by American National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, hinted at the system brushing past northern Odisha coast into West Bengal-Bangladesh borders. Another model too toed the same line whereas other pointed at a close encounter of the storm with the State. However, Bhubaneswar Meteorological Centre director HR Biswas said path and intensity of the storm still remains unclear. “We are continuously tracking it,” he said. Dr Sandeep Pattnaik, assistant professor of School of Earth Ocean and Climate Sciences in IIT-Bhubaneswar, said chances of the storm moving towards north Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and West Bengal coast is more because of high pressure zones on the sides of Arabian Sea and Myanmar.  A high pressure area, also known as anti-cyclone, is expected to form over Arabian Sea by October 22. This may partially block the system in Bay of Bengal which will be in depression stage then from moving towards Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast. Besides another high pressure region expected to occur around the same time in Myanmar region, may prevent the system from moving towards Bangladesh.  “All these factors make Odisha more vulnerable to the storm, both in north AP-Odisha and Odisha-West Bengal zones,” Dr Pattnaik said. Director of Centre for Environment and Climate of SOA University Sarat Chandra Sahu said the system is expected to move in the north-northwest direction towards Tamil Nadu till October 22 after which it may move towards Odisha coast. More clarity regarding its track will be known after the system is formed, he said. Closing in Storm may form after October 22 Path, intensity unclear Odisha Govt alerts coastal dists Collectors, senior officials not to leave headquarters