Mumbai: BJP pullout strategic after weighing risk of setback ahead of BMC polls?

MUMBAI: Political analysts, observers and a section of leaders from within BJP said the party's decision to pull out of the Andheri East by-election was a strategic withdrawal after weighing the risk of a loss ahead of BMC polls.
While BJP had drafted a mega plan to fight the bypoll, roping in 13 MLAs and 56 corporators, with the poll turning into a prestige fight, analysts said BJP's loss could have hit the party ahead of civic polls. The withdrawal also indicates CM Eknath Shinde's faction too wasn't confident of a win, they said.
Observers said though this was a bypoll, a loss barely months after a split in the Shiv Sena and despite the freezing of Sena's bow and arrow symbol would have raised a question mark on the Shinde faction's impact and support among Sena's voter base. The Shinde faction had little electoral clout in the constituency and essentially BJP was fighting the poll on its own might.

A Sena functionary said BJP had expected Uddhav Thackeray or Aaditya Thackeray to reach out and make an appeal that the bypoll be held unopposed. But since no such appeal was made, Raj Thackeray's request, followed by Sharad Pawar's appeal, could have been used by BJP for its 'exit strategy.' For BJP nominee Murji Patel, this has come as a second setback as he wasn't given a ticket for the 2019 assembly polls and ended up fighting as an independent.

Political analyst Birju Mundra said BJP would have got a setback if Patel had lost. "There was sympathy for Rutuja. While there was sympathy for Sena following the split and freezing of symbol, the controversy over her resignation not being accepted helped things snowball. Uddhav Sena had the edge and BJP was fighting a tough battle. BJP didn't want to turn it into a prestige poll. Had Uddhav Sena won, it would have set the momentum for BMC polls and damaged political perception about the Shinde faction in Mumbai. Had Latke fought on a Shinde faction ticket, it would have been a different ballgame," Mundra said. "But it's a fact the BJP cadre is disappointed and many are saying this is indirect acceptance of defeat," he added.
Latke became MLA in 2014 when he defeated Congress's Suresh Shetty. In 2019 he defeated BJP rebel Patel. In 2019, Congress's Amin Kutty had polled close to 28,000 votes, while Patel polled 45,000 as independent. Latke polled over 62,000 votes.
Election data analyst Hitesh Jain said BJP would have found it hard to add another 20,000 votes to its kitty. "Bypolls have low turnout, around 50%. This time Congress and NCP backed Sena, so it was expected Congress' votes would go to Sena. Data from 2014 and 2019 shows Congress has 30,000 voters. Patel would have led in 3 wards but would likely have trailed in 6. To flip 6 wards would have been hard, though given Patel's popularity in 3-4 wards, it could have been a close contest," he said.