Will AAP's entry make Himachal polls a three-cornered fight?

NEW DELHI: No party has been able to win consecutive elections in the state after 1985. That's why returning to office is BJP's greatest challenge and Congress' biggest opportunity. Here are the strengths and weaknesses of the top contenders in the upcoming electoral contest:
BJP
STRENGTHS
Modi factor: PM Narendra Modi remains a big draw in the state where he managed BJP's affairs. The fact that party chief JP Nadda belongs to the state is likely to help.
Big-ticket projects: The party has launched big development projects for education, health and industry, and made development and the theme of "double-engine" sarkar its main plank.
Controversy-free rule: The tenure of CM Jai Ram Thakur has remained largely free from jolting controversies. The vaccination programme was a success and ensured early restoration of tourism.
Hatti decision: The Union government's recent decision to grant tribal status to the Hatti community of Sirmaur may negatively impact the party in a few seats of the district but overall it will help BJP in the state.
WEAKNESSES
Anti-incumbency: The state has its share of local grievances and sectional resentments that have historically added up to the incumbent's disadvantage.
Apple growers, govt staff: The twin lobbies are strong enough to sway the outcome in a small state. They are demanding the restoration of the old pension scheme the Centre opposes.
OPPORTUNITIES
Backed by big leaders, BJP can utilise the development poll plank to its utmost benefit.
THREATS
Factionalism in the party can ruin its chances of performing well. Also, AAP's entry can result in a triangular contest in many seats, upsetting known poll equations in the state.
KEY PLAYER
Jai Ram Thakur: The 57-year-old incumbent CM withstood a political storm after last year's by-poll defeats and is leading the fight in Himachal. He has a tough job on his hands as no party has won back-to-back polls in the last four decades. Thakur has the image of a 'nice and likeable' CM, but is often criticised for not being a strong leader. He represents Seraj constituency in Mandi district.

CONGRESS
STRENGTHS
By-poll wins: The party is upbeat after winning all four by-elections, including one to a Lok Sabha seat, in November last year.
Poll promises: The party's poll promises, including restoration of the old pension, free electricity of up to 300 units, and Rs 1,500 per month to women, seem to have found traction.
Virbhadra factor: Congress is banking on the legacy of late Virbhadra Singh, the state's longest-serving CM, who died last year.
WEAKNESSES
Factionalism: Divisions within the party may spoil its chances. There are many contenders for the CM post. Defections, especially of veteran Harsh Mahajan who joined BJP, have hurt the party. The perception of its countrywide decline may hurt against a resurgent BJP.
Leadership vacuum: The party has not been able to fill the vacuum left by the death of former CM Virbhadra Singh. No big names: Unlike BJP, Congress national leaders have been missing in action in the state. There have not been any big rallies by Congress in the last month or so.

OPPORTUNITIES
Congress can benefit from anti-incumbency, and the disgruntlement of big pressure groups.
THREATS
Factionalism is Congress' biggest threat. The party is equally wary of debutant AAP, which might spoil its chances in many seats, especially those bordering Punjab.
KEY PLAYER
Pratibha Singh: Wife of late CM Virbhadra Singh, she faces the dual challenge of bringing Congress back to government in Himachal and containing factionalism within the party. The 66-year-old is the Congress high command's first choice to lead the party and was appointed president of the state unit in April. Politically experienced, she is leading the poll campaign armed with the legacy of her late husband.

AMM AADMI PARTY
STRENGTHS
Punjab factor: Fresh from its win in neighbouring Punjab, AAP is aiming to cash in on its performance there.
Health and education: AAP is promising better health and education, the two sectors that have remained mostly neglected and may attract voters.
Poll promises: Promises such as an unemployment allowance of Rs 3,000 and free pilgrimages may find many takers.
Third option: The party has projected itself as a better and clean alternative to BJP and Congress in the state. It can attract influential local "discards" from BJP and Congress.
WEAKNESSES
Cadre: The party is contesting polls in Himachal for the first time and doesn't have a grassroots presence in the state. essia
Campaign hitches: After an aggressive start, AAP's political campaign suffered many jolts due to defections. Its performance in Delhi and Punjab is under sharper scrutiny than before.
Strong leadership: The party doesn't have strong leaders in the state. Also, it has just started making its presence felt, unlike in Punjab.
OPPORTUNITIES
The party can benefit from the Punjab win in the areas along the border belt of Himachal.
THREATS
AAP leaders have been leaving for other parties, while its embrace of defectors will dull its image as a new alternative. The party requires stability to find its feet in Himachal politics.
KEY PLAYER
Surjit Thakur: He found political recognition in the state after he was appointed AAP's state president in June. Backed by AAP president Arvind Kejriwal, Thakur is leading the party in its first assembly polls in Himachal. He is from Nahan, Sirmaur district.