Mumbai has been recording high-intensity rainfall this October. (Express photo by Ganesh Shirsekar)While many in the city are hoping for a respite from rains, the city has till October 11 received 117 millimetres (mm) of rain as compared to the average of 89 mm rain that Mumbai gets for the entire month.
Unlike the past few years, Mumbai has seen high-intensity rainfall this October. According to the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), in the past 10 years, there have been only four instances (including this year) when Mumbai saw monthly October rainfall surpassing the 100-mm mark.
According to figures from the IMD’s Santacruz weather stations, the highest monthly rainfall recorded in October was in 2012, when the city received 197.7 mm of rainfall, followed by 170.1 mm rainfall recorded in October 2020 and 120.1 mm rainfall recorded in October 2011. Meanwhile, the rainfall figure till October 11 this year is 117.7 mm, the fourth highest in one decade.
Weather experts also stated that considering the current pattern, the overall rainfall quantity could breach 120 mm if the monsoon does not retreat anytime soon. The Santacruz observatory on October 8 (Saturday) had recorded 114 mm of rain in 24 hours and scientists from IMD, Mumbai, said that this year, the proportion of rainfall in October is higher than most years because of the heavy rainfall that took place between October 7 and October 8.
“It has only rained heavily for 24 hours in October this year and the quantity of rainfall recorded between October 7 and 8 is equivalent to overall monthly rainfall figures,” said Sushma Nair, a scientist from IMD, Mumbai. Nair said that light to moderate spells of rain will continue in the city till the end of this weekend and there is a forecast for thunderstorms as well. “The rainfall in Mumbai is occurring due to a climatic trough that has extended between coastal Andhra Pradesh and interior parts of Maharashtra, due to which there has been presence of moisture in the air, which is leading to rain in Mumbai and its adjoining parts,” said Nair.
Mahesh Palawat, a weather expert and meteorologist from Skymet weathers, said there is a possibility of monsoon withdrawal from the state in the next 10 days. “Between September and October, two low pressure points had developed in the Bay of Bengal, which later moved towards Madhya Pradesh. Whenever there is low-pressure movement in central India, rainfall in Maharashtra and Gujarat intensifies. This is the reason why we are recording rainfall in October this year,” said Palawat.
“Monsoon may now start gradually retreating from Maharashtra but it will take at least 10 days to make a concrete prediction on this,” said Palawat.