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Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actor – Judd Hirsch Could Break an Oscar Record for Longest Gap Between Acting Noms

Other contenders include Paul Dano, Brendan Gleeson, Woody Harrelson, Toby Jones and Ben Whishaw

Judd Hirsch in "The Fabelmans"
Universal Pictures

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages are Davis’ assessment of the current standings of the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any film or performance. Like any organization or body that votes, each individual category is fluid and subject to change. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

LAST UPDATED: Sept. 15, 2022

2023 Oscars Predictions: Best Supporting Actor

EMPIRE OF LIGHT, from left: Toby Jones, Micheal Ward, 2022. © Searchlight Pictures / Courtesy Everett Collection ©Searchlight Pictures/Courtesy Everett Collection

CATEGORY COMMENTARY: Many respected actors, with decades in Hollywood, will be seeking recognition. Judd Hirsch, if nominated for Steven Spielberg’s “The Fabelmans,” would be the second oldest nominee in any acting category’s history behind Christopher Plummer, who was 88 when recognized for “All the Money in the World” (2017). If he managed to win, he would be the oldest winner of any category, beating out Anthony Hopkins’ best actor win for “The Father” (2020), when he was 83. He’s not the only industry vet angling for attention with Brendan Gleeson’s work in “The Banshees of Inisherin” getting acclaim, while Ke Huy Quan will hopefully continue to be a packaged deal with his co-star Michelle Yeoh for “Everything Everywhere All at Once.” Toby Jones’ monologue about the working of a camera in Sam Mendes’ “Empire of Light” will surely get some interest from members while Ben Whishaw will benefit from being the only male actor in an impeccable female ensemble in Sarah Polley’s “Women Talking.”

See the latest film predictions, in all 23 categories, in one place on Variety’s Oscars Collective.

To see the ranked predictions for each individual category, visit Variety’s Oscars Hub.

ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:

And The Predicted Nominees Are:
RankNameFilmDistributor
1Brendan Gleeson*“The Banshees of Inisherin”Searchlight Pictures
Two lifelong friends find themselves at an impasse when one abruptly ends their relationship, with alarming consequences for both of them.
2Judd Hirsch“The Fabelmans”Universal Pictures
A semi-autobiography based on Spielberg’s own childhood growing up in post-war Arizona, from age seven to eighteen.
3Ke Huy Quan “Everything Everywhere All at Once”A24
An aging Chinese immigrant is swept up in an insane adventure, where she alone can save the world by exploring other universes connecting with the lives she could have led.
4Ben Whishaw“Women Talking”MGM/United Artists Releasing
A group of women in an isolated religious colony as they struggle to reconcile their faith with a string of sexual assaults committed by the colony’s men.
5Woody Harrelson“Triangle of Sadness”Neon
A cruise for the super-rich sinks thus leaving survivors, including a fashion model celebrity couple, trapped on an island.
Next in Line
6Toby Jones“Empire of Light”Searchlight Pictures
“Empire of Light” is a love story set in and around a beautiful old cinema on the South Coast of England in the 1980s.
7Jeremy Strong“Armageddon Time”Focus Features
A deeply personal coming-of-age story about the strength of family and the generational pursuit of the American Dream.
8Barry Keoghan“The Banshees of Inisherin”Searchlight Pictures
Two lifelong friends find themselves at an impasse when one abruptly ends their relationship, with alarming consequences for both of them.
9Paul Dano“The Fabelmans”Universal Pictures
A semi-autobiography based on Spielberg’s own childhood growing up in post-war Arizona, from age seven to eighteen.
10Eddie Redmayne“The Good Nurse”Netflix
Set in the ’30s, it follows three friends who witness a murder, become suspects themselves, and uncover one of the most outrageous plots in American history.
Other Top-Tier Contenders
11Seth Rogen“The Fabelmans”Universal Pictures
12Don Cheadle“White Noise”Netflix
13Viggo Mortensen“Thirteen Lives”Amazon Studios/MGM
14Brian Tyree Henry“Causeway”A24/Apple Original Films
15Harry Styles*“My Policeman”Amazon Studios
16Micheal Ward*“Empire of Light”Searchlight Pictures
17Zen McGrath*“The Son”Sony Pictures Classics
18Pedro Pascal“The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent”Lionsgate
19Tom Hanks“Elvis”Warner Bros.
20John David Washington“Amsterdam”20th Century Studios
Also In Contention
21Anthony Hopkins“The Son”Sony Pictures Classics
22Anthony Hopkins“Armageddon Time”Focus Features
23Ben Aldridge“Spoiler Alert: The Hero Dies”Focus Features
24Andrés Almeida“Bardo (or False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths)”Netflix
25Rupert Everett“My Policeman”Amazon Studios
26Sean Patrick Thomas“Till”Orion/United Artists Releasing
27Jalyn Hall“Till”Orion/United Artists Releasing
28Andre Braugher“She Said”Universal Pictures
29Daniel Brühl“All Quiet on the Western Front”Netflix
30Mark Strong“TÁR”Focus Features
Other Awards Possibilities
31Russell Crowe“The Greatest Beer Run Ever”Apple Original Films
32Stephen Lang“Avatar: The Way of Water”20th Century Studios
33David Lynch“The Fabelmans”Universal Pictures
34Ethan Hawke*“Raymond & Ray”Apple Original Films
35Miles Teller“Top Gun: Maverick”Paramount Pictures
36Glen Powell“Devotion”Sony Pictures
37Chris Pine“Don’t Worry Darling”Warner Bros.
38Manuel Garcia-Rulfo“A Man Called Otto”Sony Pictures
39Tobey Maguire“Babylon”Paramount Pictures
40Colin Firth*“Empire of Light”Searchlight Pictures
All Contenders Listed (Unranked-Alphabetical)
—Adrien Brody“Blonde”Netflix
—Adrien Brody“See How They Run”Searchlight Pictures
—Aldis Hodge“Black Adam”Warner Bros
—Alessandro Nivola“Amsterdam”20th Century Studios
—Alessandro Nivola“White Noise”Netflix
—Alex Sharp“Living”Sony Pictures Classics
—Matthias Schweighöfer“The Swimmers”Netflix
—Ali Suliman“The Swimmers”Netflix
—André Benjamin“White Noise”Netflix
—Andre Braugher“She Said”Universal Pictures
—André Holland“Shirley”Netflix
—Andrés Almeida“Bardo (or False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths)”Netflix
—Andrew Scott“Catherine, Called Birdy”Amazon Studios
—Anthony Hopkins“Armageddon Time”Focus Features
—Ashton Sanders“I Wanna Dance With Somebody”Sony Pictures
—Barry Keoghan“The Banshees of Inisherin”Searchlight Pictures
—Ben Aldridge“Spoiler Alert: The Hero Dies”Focus Features
—Ben Foster“Emancipation”Apple Original Films
—Ben Whishaw“Women Talking”MGM/United Artists Releasing
—Benedict Wong“Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness”Marvel Studios
—Bill Irwin“Spoiler Alert: The Hero Dies”Focus Features
—Bill Murray“The Greatest Beer Run Ever”Apple Original Films
—Bobby Cannavale“Blonde”Netflix
—Brad Pitt*“Babylon”Paramount Pictures
—Brandon Perea“Nope”Universal Pictures
—Brendan Gleeson*“The Banshees of Inisherin”Searchlight Pictures
—Brian Tyree Henry“Causeway”A24/Apple Original Films
—Chris Pine“Don’t Worry Darling”Warner Bros.
—Chris Rock“Amsterdam”20th Century Studios
—Ciarán Hinds“The Wonder”Netflix
—Claes Bang“The Northman”Focus Features
—Clarke Peters“I Wanna Dance With Somebody”Sony Pictures
—Cliff Curtis“Avatar: The Way of Water”20th Century Studios
—Colin Farrell“Thirteen Lives”Amazon Studios/MGM
—Colin Farrell“The Batman”Warner Bros.
—Colin Farrell*“The Banshees of Inisherin”Searchlight Pictures
—Colin Firth*“Empire of Light”Searchlight Pictures
—Daniel Bruhl“All Quiet on the Western Front”Netflix
—Dave Bautista“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”Netflix
—David Dawson“My Policeman”Amazon Studios
—David F. Sandberg“Shazam! Fury of the Gods”Warner Bros.
—David Oyelowo“See How They Run”Searchlight Pictures
—David Wenham“Elvis”Warner Bros.
—Derek Jacobi“Allelujah”No U.S. Distribution
—Diego Calva*“Babylon”Paramount Pictures
—Djimon Hounsou“Shazam! Fury of the Gods”Warner Bros
—Don Cheadle“White Noise”Netflix
—Dustin Hoffman“As They Made Us”Quiver
—Edward Norton“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”Netflix
—Eric Bana“Blueback”No U.S. Distribution
—Ernie Hudson“Prisoner’s Daughter”No U.S. Distribution
—Ethan Hawke“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”Netflix
—Ethan Hawke*“Raymond & Ray”Apple Original Films
—Ewan McGregor*“Raymond & Ray”Apple Original Films
—Frankie Faison“Till”Orion/United Artists Releasing
—Harry Lloyd“The Lost King”Warner Bros.
—Harry Melling“The Pale Blue Eye”Netflix
—Harry Styles“Don’t Worry Darling”Warner Bros
—Jalyn Hall*“Till”Orion/United Artists Releasing
—Jaylin Webb“Armageddon Time”Focus Features
—Jeffrey Wright“The Batman”Warner Bros.
—Jeremy Strong“Armageddon Time”Focus Features
—Joe Alwyn“Catherine, Called Birdy”Amazon Studios
—Joel Edgerton“Thirteen Lives”Amazon Studios/MGM
—John Boyega“The Woman King”Sony Pictures
—John David Washington“Amsterdam”20th Century Studios
—John Glover“TÁR”Focus Features
—Glen Powell“Devotion”Sony Pictures
—Glen Powell“Top Gun: Maverick”Paramount Pictures
—Jon Hamm“Top Gun: Maverick”Paramount Pictures
—John Leguizamo“The Menu”Searchlight Pictures
—John Patton Ford“Emily the Criminal”Roadside Attractions
—Juancho Hernangómez“Hustle”Netflix
—Ke Huy Quan“Everything Everywhere All at Once”A24
—Kelvin Harrison Jr.“Elvis”Warner Bros.
—Lance Reddick“Shirley”Netflix
—Leslie Odom Jr.“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”Netflix
—Lucas Hedges“Shirley”Netflix
—Luke Macfarlane“Bros”Universal Pictures
—Malcolm McDowell“Moving On”No U.S. Distribution
—Manuel Garcia-Rulfo“A Man Called Otto”Sony Pictures
—Mark Rylance“Bones & All”MGM/United Artists Releasing
—Mark Rylance“The Way of the Wind”No U.S. Distribution
—Mark Strong“TÁR”Focus Features
—Martin Freeman“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”Marvel Studios
—Matthias Schoenaerts“Amsterdam”20th Century Studios
—Michael Shannon“Amsterdam”20th Century Studios
—Michael Stuhlbarg“Bones & All”MGM/United Artists Releasing
—Micheal Ward*“Empire of Light”Searchlight Pictures
—Mike Myers“Amsterdam”20th Century Studios
—Miles Teller“Top Gun: Maverick”Paramount Pictures
—Nicholas Hoult“The Menu”Searchlight Pictures
—Noah Jupe“Dreamin’ Wild”No U.S. Distribution
—Oh Kwang-rok“Return to Seoul”Sony Pictures Classics
—Paul Dano“The Fabelmans”Universal Pictures
—Paul Dano“The Batman”Warner Bros.
—Pedro Pascal“The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent”Lionsgate
—Peter Lanzani“Argentina, 1985”Amazon Studios
—Ralph Fiennes*“The Menu”Searchlight Pictures
—Rami Malek“Amsterdam”20th Century Studios
—Richard Roxburgh“Elvis”Warner Bros.
—Robert DeNiro“Amsterdam”20th Century Studios
—Robert Duvall“The Pale Blue Eye”Netflix
—Russell Crowe“The Greatest Beer Run Ever”Apple Original Films
—Scott Speedman“Crimes of the Future”Neon
—Sean Patrick Thomas“Till”MGM/United Artists Releasing
—Seth Rogen“The Fabelmans”Universal Pictures
—Stanley Tucci“I Wanna Dance With Somebody”Sony Pictures
—Stephen Lang“Avatar: The Way of Water”20th Century Studios
—Steven Yeun“Nope”Universal Pictures
—Taika Waititi“Thor: Love and Thunder”Marvel Studios
—Terrence Howard“Shirley”Netflix
—Timothy Olyphant“Amsterdam”20th Century Studios
—Tobey Maguire“Babylon”Paramount Pictures
—Toby Jones“Empire of Light”Searchlight Pictures
—Tom Burke“Living”Sony Pictures Classics
—Tom Hanks“Elvis”Warner Bros.
—Tom Pelphrey“She Said”Universal Pictures
—Viggo Mortensen“Thirteen Lives”Amazon Studios/MGM
—Winston Duke*“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”Marvel Studios
—Woody Harrelson“Triangle of Sadness”Neon
—Zen McGrath*“The Son”Sony

2023 Academy Awards Predictions

BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | ACTOR | ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT

The 95th Oscars ceremony will be held at the Dolby Theatre and televised live on Sunday, March 12, 2022, on ABC.

2022 category winner: Troy Kotsur, "CODA" (Apple Original Films)

About Variety Awards Circuit:

Variety's unmatched coverage gives its readership unbeatable exposure in print and online, as well as provides inside reports on all the contenders in this year's awards season races. In addition to predictions, the section includes -- Awards Circuit Column, a weekly analysis dissecting the trends and contenders in the race; Awards Circuit Podcast, a weekly series featuring interviews with the top contenders in the awards race and an expert roundtable discussion with Variety's leading editors and columnists; Awards Circuit Predictions Video Series, a deep dive into specific categories, led by the leading pundits.

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