The boycott calls against Bollywood on social media has continued with each new Hindi film release and the scenario for the upcoming movie Brahmastra, a fantasy adventure film starring Ranbir Kapoor and Alia Bhatt has been no different.
Some film trade analysts note that the boycott calls against the new release has been more aggressive than that for Aamir Khan's Laal Singh Chaddha or Akshay Kumar's Raksha Bandhan that released during the long Independence day holiday.
Both these films had seen weak performance at the box office. Abneesh Roy, Executive Director, Edelweiss Securities had pointed out that one reason for poor advance booking for Laal Singh Chaddha, one of the biggest releases of 2022 was the social media backlash and boycott calls the film faced.
Bollywood boycott impact
"The conversation and word of mouth generated around a film has a significant role to play in whether people decide to watch a film or not. Given the amount of content and ease to access it digitally, audiences are faster to drop content which they may perceive as not worth their time," said Anushka Shah, Founder, Civic Studios.
Negativity harms collective morale and business," said Anand Pandit, film producer known for movies like The Big Bull, Sarkar 3, among others.
We have two types of audience, noted Sanjay Chabbria, producer and founder of Everest Entertainment. "One is the younger audience between the age of 15 to 30 years. The second is the first day first show audience and the older audience who are constantly looking for validation via reviews and positive word of mouth before they book their movie tickets. Negative media chatter affects the latter who are always on the fence," he said.
Laal Singh Chaddha and Raksha Bandhan had low openings at Rs 11.58 crore and Rs 8 crore, respectively. The Aamir Khan-starrer had witnessed an estimated 40 percent drop in collections on second day of release, Raksha Bandhan had a 30 percent drop in its collections. Both releases had recorded low occupancy in the range of 20-25 percent.
The negative social media chatter does impact box office business and it is a matter of concern for producers, artistes, however the elephant in the room is the content offering, said Chabbria.
"Pre-Pandemic, one could get away with mediocre content. Thanks to prolonged exposure to OTT (over the top platforms) during long lock downs, the audiences have evolved. They’re exposed to a lot of regional cinema, world cinema and award-winning originals. You’re directly competing with them to win your cine goer’s attention," he said.
Rahul Puri, MD, Mukta A2 Cinemas said that anytime one sees such a situation (boycott calls) there is an initial concern. "However, we must understand that social media is just a small segment of the population. The effect of these kinds of things is hugely overstated and overestimated. People will go and see content if they think it is engaging enough. Most of the audience isn't privy to these boycott conversations."
He added that social media sometimes can become the place that other mainstream media pick stories and narratives up from. "Then they (boycott calls) can be harmful. But films don't run because the audience cannot connect with the content. A call for action on a social media platform is unlikely to change that connect."
Betting on Brahmastra
Puri said that Brahmastra, for instance, has seen strong advance bookings despite all the boycott hashtags on social media.
According to film trade analyst Komal Nahta, PVR has sold around 92,000 tickets of Brahmastra in advance bookings and expects the number to touch one lakh from one cinema chain.
He pointed out that top multiplex chains including PVR, INOX and Cinepolis had sold around 92,000 tickets in advances for Bollywood's successful venture Bhool Bhulaiyaa 2 starring Kartik Aaryan that earned around Rs 185 crore at the box office.
The Ranbir Kapoor-starrer Brahmastra has pocketed Rs 6 crore worth of business so far from advance bookings from top multiplex chains, said Nahta.
"Brahmastra has an appeal (intention to watch in theatre) of 76 percent which means that 76 percent audiences are interested to watch the film in theatre. This appeal is among the highest for a Hindi film post pandemic. It is currently tracking at a first day box office of Rs 23.3 crore in Hindi language. One can say that the social media chatter has not had an impact on its opening day," said Gautam Jain, Partner, Ormax Media.
He added that boycott calls do not impact the business of any film in the long run. "If the campaign is good and audiences like the trailer, songs then they will come to watch the film on the first day itself. If the film is good and has likeability amongst audiences, it will get footfalls post the first day as well."
Brahmastra's lifetime business is estimated to be in the range of Rs 130-200 crore. "The film will get strong support from regional markets as it has been dubbed in multiple languages (Hindi, Tamil, Telugu, Malayalam and Kannada) and is a scientific-fiction (sci-fi) film. Dubbed language collection for Brahmastra may be in the range of 15-20 percent of its overall net box office," said Karan Taurani, senior vice-president, Elara Capital.
Poor box office
While the film and exhibition industry is betting on Brahmastra, Hindi box office business is estimated to drop 45 percent versus pre-COVID levels to Rs 500 crore in Q2 FY23, said Taurani. He added that this will be the lowest box office collection for Hindi films since Q1 FY17.
"Occupancy rates for multiplexes have been dismal in July and August in the range of 18-19 percent due to consistent failure in content. September may see some respite in case occupancy moves upwards to 27-28 percent," he added.
Chabbria said that it would be unfair to blame the boycott calls entirely for a film’s failure. "Unappealing content, exorbitant ticket and F&B pricing, shorter OTT windows, are also responsible for poor box office," he said.