Azad's Kashmir mission has opened a new topic for discussion in the political circles. It is to be watched how Azad, who has always played manipulative politics, will succeed to win the confidence of people strategically.
It is too early to forecast which way the political wind in Jammu Kashmir UT (JKUT) will blow when all the regional political parties are engaged in keeping their flock together after Ghulam Nabi Azad's appearance in Kashmir politics in a new avatar.
Each party is keeping its political cards close to its chest, merely waiting for a final call from the Election Commission of India. At present, the political situation in JKUT is uncertain, thus analysts' and journalists' guesswork is adding more confusion and chaos to the political outlook.
Azad's timely entry after resigning from the Congress party, where he received marginalisation at the national level, has raised a number of questions. Kashmir watchers believe that his sudden announcement of floating a new party from a regional level to the national scene seems a definite agenda of Azad with the support of invisible political hands.
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Azad's Kashmir mission has opened a new topic for discussion in the political circles. It is to be watched how Ghulam Nabi Azad, who has always played manipulative politics, will succeed to win the confidence of people strategically. It is already written on the wall that all regional parties National Conference, Peoples Democratic Party, Peoples Conference, Apni Party, and other small groups are on the same political agenda of restoration of statehood to Kashmir and grant of Article 371 instead of Article 370 and Article 35 which were abrogated in 2019. Azad's new political front too cannot go beyond the restoration of statehood, according to his loyalist and former deputy Chief Minister Tara Chand.
As far as the demand for restoration of Article 370 and Article 35-A is concerned, both National Conference and Azad's new front have left the case in the Supreme Court of India for its verdict. It has been observed that people in the valley have no interest in a reversal of Article 370 and Article 35. They want peace and development in the Kashmir valley at any cost, and moreover have lost faith in Pakistan too which they call a failed state.
In a question about what effect Azad would have on political parties in the state, Murtaza Khan Advocate and former Minister told this journalist that "Azad's opening in Kashmir is a similar experiment like of Mufti Mohammad Sayeed in 1999 (when he founded PDP) which was being sponsored with the blessing of Delhi to challenge National Conference government's misgovernance, corruption, and other issues. It yielded results and in the 2002 assembly election, PDP won 16 and NC 28. Since then PDP did not look back and in 2014 PDP won 28, NC 15, and BJP 25. Then BJP and PDP formed a coalition government". He said Azad's influence in the Jammu division will certainly tilt the balance in favor of BJP. The split of Muslim votes will give the BJP a clean sweep in Jammu and could help it win a few seats in the Kashmir Valley too. Azad could even turn out to be another Mufti Mohammad Sayeed who will emerge as yet another political force in J&K, this time from the Jammu division.
Khan, while elaborating further on the emerging political scenario said, "Pahari community has its influence in 12 seats. If Schedule Tribe status and political reservation are granted to them, as promised, BJP will have bonus seats. In case no such consideration is conceded, automatically the Pahari voters will get scattered and certainly it would be bad for BJP."
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The total seats in JKUT are 114 of which 47 are in Kashmir valley, 43 in Jammu, and 24 reserved for PoK.
Interestingly, political parties have expressed apprehension of 24 lakh voters from outside voting in the election. On this issue Murtaza Khan, while putting end to the doubts, said "logically or constitutionally no voters from outside can be imported nor voting rights to temporary residents of Jammu and Kashmir is permissible by the election commission of India. It was by mistake of an electoral official who, on the basis of yearly data of population by the planning department stated guesswork of an increase of voters who will attain the age of 18 to cast their votes. Unfortunately, political parties made a political issue out of his statement."
Mainly, speculations are on a pre-poll or post-poll alliance between the regional and national parties. National Conference and some leaders of the Azad-led party have already fuelled speculations about the pre-poll alliance between the two parties. Although Ghulam Nabi Azad is yet to announce the agenda of his new political outfits, his loyalists are dropping hints to ally with the secular parties of J&K.
(R C Ganjoo is a senior journalist and columnist having more than 30 years experience of covering issues concerning national security, particularly Kashmir. He has worked with several prominent media groups and his articles have been published in many national and international publications.)
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are the personal opinions of the author. The facts and opinions appearing in the article do not reflect the views of OneIndia and OneIndia does not assume any responsibility or liability for the same.