India's Q1 FY23 GDP growth expected between 12-16%, say analysts, polls

The Indian economy is expected to record a double-digit growth in the April-June 2022 quarter of the current fiscal, most experts and analysts have predicted. The government will be releasing the gross domestic product (GDP) data on Wednesday (August 31). While the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has predicted the GDP growth rate to touch 16.2 per cent in Q1 FY23, most analysts are guessing the figures to be between 12 and 16 per cent as growth in the previous quarter is expected to have resumed owing to a recovery in many sectors.  

Rating agency Icra has predicted India’s GDP to grow 13 per cent in Q1 of FY23, Reuters poll has predicted 15.2 per cent growth, while State Bank of India (SBI) in its report had projected a 15.7 per cent growth.  

RBI’s GDP Forecast 

In its Monetary Policy meeting earlier this month, the central bank retained its projection for GDP at 7.2 per cent for the current fiscal. Its growth projections for other quarters are Q2 at 6.2 per cent, Q3 at 4.1 per cent; and Q4 at 4.0 per cent, with risks broadly balanced. For the first quarter of next fiscal year (2023-24), it has projected the real GDP growth rate to be around 6.7 per cent. 

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As per experts, a base effect of 20.1 per cent growth in the Q1 last year, moderation of imported fuel and commodity prices, and a strong turnaround in the service sector activity have prompted the Q1 results to touch the double-digit figure.  

The central bank has added that there could be heightened risks due to ongoing geopolitical tensions, and high volatility in the global financial market, which can lead to strict financial conditions. All these factors could weigh down on India’s GDP numbers in the coming quarters. 

SBI’s Forecast 

In its report Ecowrap, SBI has said India’s GDP is expected to be much higher in the first quarter of FY23. The growth is expected to be around 15.7 per cent, with a possibility of an upswing in several indicators as many sectors have shown good progress.  

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Besides, SBI composite leading indicator (CLI) stated that the GDP growth is showing early signals of turning points in the economic activity. Composite Leading Indicator takes the sector-based parameters into account, which are calculated on monthly data.  

Reuters poll

In its report, Reuters has said that India’s economy is forecast to have expanded by an annual 15.2 per cent in the April-June 2022 quarter. This double-digit growth rate will be a sharp spike from a reported 4.1 per cent growth rate in the preceding quarter. 

As per the Reuters poll of 51 economists, India’s GDP growth is expected to rise 15.2 per cent in Q1 FY23, 6.2 per cent in Q2 FY23, 4.5 per cent in Q3 FY23, 4.2 per cent in Q4 FY23. In July, the experts had predicted 15.1 per cent in Q1, 6.2 per cent in Q2, 4.7 per cent in Q3, and 4.1 per cent in Q4.

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