Explained: How numbers stack up in Jharkhand assembly and the crisis may play out

NEW DELHI: Amid speculation of Jharkhand chief minister Hemant Soren being disqualified as an MLA, here is quick look at how the numbers stack up in the 81-member assembly -
Jharkhand Mukti Morcha, with 30 MLAs, remains the strongest constituent in the assembly, and most likely will have the last word on Soren’s replacement in the event of him being barred from contesting elections.

Congress has 18 MLAs, three of whom are dissidents arrested in Bengal’s Howrah with cash allegedly meant to be used in destabilising the government.
Meanwhile, the BJP has 26 members in the assembly and hopes that when the verdict is out, it will be in their favour.
"When the CM is disqualified, we are sure that the government, too, will run out of its steam,” BJP spokesperson Pratul Shahdeo said.
The current crisis may play out in three possible scenarios in the state -
Scenario 1
Governor disqualifies CM Hemant as an MLA on the Election Commission's recommendation
Outcome -
Soren resigns as chief minister, is re-elected leader of coalition of Jharkhand Mukti Morcha's allies and stakes claims to form the government again. He then contests a bypoll within six months.

Scenario 2
Based on the EC's recommendation, governor disqualifies Soren as an MLA and bars him from contesting an election for a period exceeding six months.
Outcome -
JMM nominates either a member of the Soren family or a party veteran to lead the legislature party with Congress and RJD's consent. Coalition stakes claim to form the government with a new CM.
Scenario 3
Governor is not convinced about the JMM led coalition retaining its majority under a new leader. Unless JMM's claim to majority is backed by letters of support and the presence of the required number of MLAs, the governor can refuse to administer the oath of office to the potential new CM.
Outcome -
Potential President's rule prevent a constitutional crisis if governor doesn't invite JMM's chosen replacement for Soren to head the government.
(With inputs from TNN)