
That the new Nitish Kumar government in Bihar would win the floor test was foretold. But the political test for the renewed JD(U)-RJD Mahagathbandhan begins now. A warning has already been sounded by the CBI raids on RJD leaders ahead of the Wednesday test, ostensibly in connection with a “land for jobs” scam dating back to Lalu Prasad’s tenure as Union railway minister in UPA-1. The guilt or innocence of those raided will be proved by due process of law. But the raids’ timing underscores the dismal pattern of the use of central agencies to target political opponents. An aggressive BJP, smarting after losing power overnight, and a vindictive Centre, out to settle political scores, however, are not the only challenges for Nitish and the government he leads with his ally-turned-rival-turned-ally Tejashwi Yadav.
To begin with, the JD(U)-RJD coalition will need to find a brand new internal equilibrium, one that includes the arithmetic but also goes beyond it. The political reality has changed since the last time the two parties were in alliance. While the JD(U) has lost ground under a leader who, despite his many achievements in government, looks more and more dependent on Tejashwi, the RJD has looked increasingly sure-footed under a younger leader who, in the last assembly polls, led it to the edge of victory. Tejashwi is also trying to remake his party — a new code of conduct for RJD ministers that gives them dos and don’ts, ranging from don’t-buy-a-vehicle-for-personal-use-from-public-money to encouraging them to say “namaste” and “adaab” and discourage feudal gestures like feet-touching, shows the vastness of his task, but he has time on his side. The first point of friction, therefore, will lie in the equation between two leaders who come to the alliance from different vantage points — it will demand patience and wisdom from both, and from the younger man especially. Then there is the BJP, which still lacks a face of its own in Bihar, but which, under Modi, is likely to inflate itself into a “double-engine” Opposition — it will not hesitate to use its control over central resources to fight the state government. At the same time, the Nitish-Tejashwi duo will have to pass the governance test. Bihar has shown improvements in the years of Nitish raj, but it still lags behind other states on economic and social indicators. The heated protests by aspiring teachers and the images of lathi charge on them by the police and an additional district magistrate on Monday show the long haul ahead.
The renewed Bihar Mahagathbandhan, therefore, will have to address unemployment and other issues, while facing a BJP that is looking for a chance, and also dealing with the heightened expectations from them at the level of the national Opposition, where their coming together has sparked off a frisson. As Nitish and his young deputy get going, then, they must know they have no time to lose. They are being watched, and much is at stake. How they perform and deliver beginning today will also decide whether their Mission 2024 is anything more than a pie in the political sky.