‘Future quakes can be more intense than 2001 tremblor’

Rajkot: After six years of intense research, eight scientists of Kutch university have concluded that the next tremor that Kutch will experience in around 50-100 years could be three times more devastating than the 2001 killer quake and will have an unimaginable long-lasting effect on the economy.
Of the total five earthquake fault lines in Kutch, they found that the three most active lines are the South Wagad faults (SWF), the Kutch mainland fault (KMF), and the Katrol hill fault (KHF) which keep the threat of possible major quakes in the next 50 to 100 years loom large over the region.
Fault lines are earth surfaces which are fractured and non-continuous. These lines may extend for thousands of kilometres.
The most active fault lines of SWF and the KMF pass through the middle of Kutch.
While crores of rupees of property were flattened in the devastating 2001 earthquake, scientists fear that the two active fault lines may trigger even more devastating earthquakes measuring nearly 7 magnitude on the Richter scale causing immense casualties in the radius of 200-300km from the epicentre.
The Union ministry of earth science identified three corridors in the country and assigned a detailed study to geographical scientists in 2016.
The scientists prepared a master document of 300 pages comprising detailed maps and minute details from the 45 papers published in the last six years. According to scientists, a major earthquake measuring 6.5 or 7 magnitudes may occur in the next 50-100 years causing widespread destruction in 300km radius areas. For example, the killer quake of 2001 which was triggered by the fault lines in SWF killed people even as far away as Ahmedabad, Morbi, and some parts of Pakistan.
M G Thakkar, head of the department of earth and environment sciences, Kutch university said, “If you consider an earthquake of more than 7 magnitude, then a radius of 100 to 200km is nothing. Such a tremor can devastate everything, including major buildings in a 300 km radius.”
“We will take one more year before submitting our research to the ministry. The conclusion of our findings will be sent to authorities including GSDMA to prepare vulnerability maps in the entire state while developing infrastructure and whatever changes it warrants in terms of increasing strength in the existing buildings,” Thakkar added.
The summary stated that in a basin like Kutch, several fault lines are always vulnerable and thus, a specific guideline for earthquake-sensitive zone must be properly followed while planning infrastructure or any building.