Pelosi queers pitch

The normalisation of relations between the US and China in the 1970s involved finessing the Chinese claim that Taiwan is an inalienable part of China. On its part, the US switched its diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to the People’s Republic of China, announced support for the “One China” policy, and agreed to limit its engagement with Taiwan. Beijing, in turn, promised it would not forcibly integrate Taiwan into the mainland and respect the principle of one “country two systems”. This compromise helped Washington and Beijing to significantly improve bilateral relations and develop a massive commercial partnership. Amidst the deterioration of US-China relations in the last few years, China has accused the US of undermining the One China principle by elevating American ties with Taiwan. Washington says it is President Xi Jinping’s muscular policies that are overturning the status quo on Taiwan. Xi’s absorption of Hong Kong in violation of the promises made to the international community and his ambition to integrate Taiwan, forcibly if necessary, have changed the terms of US debate on Taiwan. Speaker Pelosi is not backing the independence of Taiwan. But, for a long time, she has been a champion of the democratic rights of the people in China — including in Taiwan, Tibet and Xinjiang. With her visit to Taiwan, she has certainly queered the pitch for Washington’s ties with Beijing.

Delhi can’t afford to treat the developments in Taiwan as a distant crisis. The greater the Chinese oppression of its minorities and the more assertive it is towards its territorial claims on Taiwan and South China Sea, the more substantive the US resistance will become. A war over Taiwan may not be imminent. But the conflict over Taiwan is deepening. Unlike in Ukraine, where the US is not directly fighting Russia, US commitment to defend Taiwan would pit American armed forces against the PLA in the event of an escalation. US allies, Japan and Australia, are also committed to join it in securing Taiwan against a Chinese invasion. Ranked 21st, Taiwan is among the top economic entities in the world. It is a leading producer of semiconductor chips and straddles the vital maritime trade routes in the Indo-Pacific. The global disruption from a conflict over Taiwan could be much larger than that unfolding due to Ukraine. Equally significant is the possibility that the deepening conflict between US and China could also draw India into it. While Beijing might think twice before risking a direct conflict with Washington over Taiwan, it could hit out at its other neighbours, including India, to compensate for the visible weakness vis a vis the United States.