Maharashtra may get below-normal rain in August

PUNE: Maharashtra is likely to receive below-normal monsoon rainfall in August, Met department's latest forecast indicated on Tuesday. While the monthly rainfall in India, as a whole, for August is most likely to be normal (94 to 106%) of the Long Period Average (LPA), the west coast, including Konkan, Kerala and interiors of Maharashtra, is likely to record less showers than the average for the month, the forecast stated.
The good news, however, is that the combined rainfall for August and September is likely to be above normal in Maharashtra, which could compensate any deficits the state may experience in August, KS Hosalikar, head, Climate Research and Services, IMD, Pune, told TOI.

Though statewise forecast has not been issued by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the map depicting probability forecast of tercile categories indicated less than normal August rainfall in parts of Maharashtra and central India, also from the west coast, right from Konkan up till Kerala.
Hosalikar said monthly/ seasonal forecasts have to be connected with the extended range forecasts and the five-day estimates issued by the IMD for a better understanding. "Already, most of Maharashtra has received normal to excess rainfall in the season up till now due to the good spells we received in July. Slightly less rainfall on and off could benefit agriculture in Maharashtra because already, parts of the state were in danger of flooding in July and dams, as well as rivers, were also filling up fast," he said.
"Moreover, the combined seasonal rainfall for August and September places Maharashtra in a good position for the above-normal rainfall that is expected for both the months as a whole. This shows that even though, August may receive less than normal rainfall, September could turn out to be good for Maharashtra, as per the current seasonal forecasts," Hosalikar said.
He said though the recent IMD seasonal forecast pertained to the entire month as well as the rain situation till September, there would be some good spells in Maharashtra on and off even in August.
"For instance, the western-end of monsoon trough at mean sea level lies north of its normal position and its eastern end is near its normal position. This trough is very likely to be near normal or south of its normal position from August 5. This is likely to rekindle rainfall activity in Maharashtra, with widespread rains in parts of Konkan and Madhya Maharashtra during August 5-6 period," Hosalikar said.