Fed braces as another big US inflation number looms

Fed braces as another big US inflation number looms
Bloomberg
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Synopsis

While persistently high and broad-based inflation is seen persuading Fed officials to raise their benchmark rate 75 basis points for a second consecutive meeting on July 27, recession concerns are mounting.

Reuters
FILE PHOTO: Plastic letters arranged to read "Inflation" are placed on U.S. Dollar banknote in this illustration taken, June 12, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
US inflation data in the coming week may stiffen the resolve of Federal Reserve policy makers to proceed with another big boost in interest rates later this month.

The consumer price index probably rose nearly 9% in June from a year earlier, a fresh four-decade high, based on the median projection of economists in a Bloomberg survey. Compared with May, the CPI is seen rising 1.1%.

While persistently high and broad-based inflation is seen persuading Fed officials to raise their benchmark rate 75 basis points for a second consecutive meeting on July 27, recession concerns are mounting.

There are signs, though, that price pressures at the producer level are stabilizing as commodities costs - including energy - retreat.

Even so, the inflation data are likely to draw heightened scrutiny globally after a faster-than-consensus result for May caused ructions in financial markets.

The US inflation data follow figures Friday showing stronger-than-expected job growth and an unemployment rate near a five-decade low, underscoring a tight labor market that's helping to keep wage growth elevated.

Figures on producer prices, industrial production and consumer sentiment, as well as the Fed's Beige Book, are also released in the coming week.

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