No need for alarm
PremiumWe mustn’t succumb to any pessimism that provokes calls for enforced birth control measures. Our headcount is expected to plateau and then decline. Our big challenge is to ensure rapidly widening economic participation
Given India’s quicker population growth, our headcount has long been projected to surpass China’s at some point. But just how soon this would happen may come as a surprise. The United Nations’ World Population Prospects 2022 report says that India could displace China as the world’s most populous country in 2023. At 1.412 billion this year, our population is estimated to have almost caught up with China’s 1.426 billion. The gap may close next year. While becoming the world’s biggest nation would grant us global salience as far as trivia goes, it’s not an achievement. China may have managed to turn what was once seen as a liability into an asset, with its economy clearly set to overtake America’s, but a demographic dividend has eluded us so far. Average productivity remains low in India, and we still lack the kind of education and healthcare foundation needed for all our multitudes to collectively ascend the value-generation curve. Yet, we mustn’t succumb to any pessimism that provokes calls for enforced birth control measures. Our headcount is expected to plateau and then decline. Our big challenge is to ensure rapidly widening economic participation.