'Fourth COVID wave unlikely in Tamil Nadu but get boosted', say experts

CHENNAI:  Though daily COVID-19 cases in Tamil Nadu are increasing, public health experts say it’s only a fluctuation and the possibility of a fourth wave is unlikely unless there is a more virulent and infectious COVID variant. However, health department officials are worried about the low percentage of booster dose vaccine coverage.

According to the Directorate of Public Health data, the precaution dose coverage is 47.78 per cent. The first dose coverage is 94.36 per cent and second dose coverage is 84.85 per cent. On Tuesday, the State reported 332 cases against 255 cases on Monday.

The test positivity rate (TPR) increased to 2.9 per cent from 0.8 per cent on June 6. The number of daily cases breached the 300-mark after three months. Last time the State reported more than 300 cases was on March 2 (320).

Noted virologist Dr T Jacob John said that in the first three waves, the pattern of increase was that daily cases were always higher than the previous day. "But the pattern now is an increase one day and drops the next. It is just fluctuation in an endemic stage," he said.

Delhi, Haryana, Mumbai and Kerala had this phenomenon. There is an increase only in cities like Chennai, Chengalpattu, and others. This is the trend in other States also, this is because of the density of population, he added.

Dr Manikandan Nesan, an epidemiologist based in Chennai, said, "Only omicron variant is dominating in India and other countries like the US now. Unless there is a new variant, which is more virulent and infectious, there is no possibility for a new wave. To know if there is any new variant, whole-genome sequencing should be done continuously. Now there is only a minimum surge."

Dr Selvavinayagam, director of Public Health, said, the booster dose coverage among the elderly and with comorbidities is very less. This is a worrying factor as these groups are vulnerable. "There is no possibility for a fourth wave. There will be a surge. So, people should wear face masks in crowded and closed places," Kolandaswamy added.