Normal rainfall on forecast for monsoon over northwest India

‘Normal’ rainfall for the northwest region would be 92% to 108% of the long period average (LPA), which is 587.6 mm for the region for the season.

Northwest India comprises Delhi, Haryana, Chandigarh, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, and the Western Himalayan Region of Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand. “Normal or above normal season rainfall is most likely over many areas of northwest and central India…,” the IMD said in its forecast on Tuesday. The IMD declared the onset of the southwest monsoon over Kerala on May 29.

The IMD had issued the first stage of its southwest monsoon forecast for the country as a whole in April.

For the month of June as well, normal or above normal rainfall is expected over many parts of northwest and central India.

“Heat wave conditions are not so likely…only Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh and some parts of Uttarakhand may have the probability of above normal (maximum) temperature. The main heat core zone, extending from Gujarat and Rajasthan to Odisha, will have below normal maximum temperature probability,” said Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General, IMD.

From March 1 to May 30, northwest India as a whole has recorded a 64% deficit in rainfall. In May, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh recorded deficit rainfall, Punjab registered normal rainfall, and the Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi sub-division recorded a large excess in rainfall.

Many parts of northwest India recorded above normal maximum temperatures in May, leading to heatwave conditions that were later suppressed by thunderstorms brought by active western disturbances. Bringing some respite, below normal maximum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country in June, including the Delhi, Haryana and Chandigarh region, the IMD forecast indicates.