French Open 2022: Night scheduling of Djokovic-Nadal blockbuster may tilt the scales in the Serb’s favour

The scheduling of the biggest showpiece tennis match of the year has come into question considering it can be hugely significant in declaring a favourite. Djokovic would prefer the slower and cooler conditions of the night, while Nadal would rather play in the day. In fact, the Spaniard does not believe claycourt tennis should be played at night at all. “I don’t like night session on clay. I am very clear with that,” he told reporters following his third-round win last week

Part of the reason for the 13-time French Open champion’s dominance on clay is that his playing style heavily favours hot summer conditions. The Spaniard’s topspin-heavy groundstrokes bounce very high off the claycourts under the sun at ferocious speeds and allow him to construct the points at his own pace. At night, however, humidity sets in and moistens the surface. The ball picks up the moisture and does not bounce as high, curbing Nadal from using his groundstrokes to dictate proceedings from the baseline. This is likely to allow Djokovic to move up to the baseline and use his own flatter groundstrokes and varied arsenal to take time away from his rival.

Even during Djokovic’s famous four-set semifinal win over Nadal last year, the Serb trailed 0-5 in the first set, but as the sun set, Nadal – who was also struggling with a chronic foot problem – was not able to find much purchase on his groundstrokes, allowing the Serb to take control of the match.

The record rivalry

The 2022 Roland Garros quarterfinal will be the 59th edition of what is already the longest open-era rivalry in men’s tennis. Djokovic slightly edges the head-to-head 30-28, but Nadal has won seven of their nine previous meetings at the French Open, and 19 of their 27 matches on clay.

The pair is also embroiled in the Grand Slam race that has dominated the narrative in men’s tennis in recent years. Nadal holds the all-time record with 21 Majors at the moment, and Djokovic and Federer are right behind him with 20.

Both have had hugely contrasting buildups to Roland Garros. Djokovic’s unvaccinated status did not allow him to play much before the clay season. After reaching the final in Belgrade and semifinal in Madrid, he picked up his first trophy of the year at Rome, peaking just in time for the second Major of the year. He is yet to drop a set in Paris so far.

Nadal’s remarkable 20 match unbeaten streak this year and his start to the clay season were both derailed due to a rib injury. His pain-ridden third-round loss in Rome also saw the chronic foot problem resurface, coming into Paris without a single clay title for the first time in his career. The Spaniard sets up the quarterfinal after an over four-hour-long fourth-round encounter against Canada’s Felix Auger-Aliassime that forced him to produce his best tennis.

The fact that the pair are at odds even for the scheduling of their quarterfinal encounter, not willing to lose even an inch of ground to the other, shows how closely fought this rivalry is. And while the scheduling favours Djokovic, the match is still in the balance, especially considering the 2020 Roland Garros. The event took place in October’s winter conditions – an outlier due to the COVID-19 pandemic – and the final was played under the roof due to rain, despite which Nadal dominated Djokovic 6-0, 6-2, 7-5 to win the title without dropping a set.

Crosscourt exchanges

More often than not, the crosscourt exchanges between Nadal’s lefty forehand and Djokovic’s backhand – two tennis weapons that are as celebrated as the men that wield them – provide plenty of highlight-reel moments, and set the tone for the match.

Nadal is usually the aggressor, particularly on clay. While facing a right-hander, the Spaniard likes to use his aggressive court-positioning and heavy forehand to push his opponent further away from the court on their backhand side, opening up positions to either hit an inside-out forehand or thunder one down-the-line. Against Djokovic in particular, this also allows him to stop the Serb from using his backhand to dictate the rallies.

But Djokovic’s defensive skills have gained legendary status, and few can replicate his redirection of pace on the backhand side. The Serb’s court coverage allows him to not be at too much of a disadvantage when Nadal is powering crosscourt forehands, and he is able to absorb pace and play down-the-line backhands. Djokovic’s ability to find the angles to test Nadal’s backhand from both wings – which was on full display during last year’s semifinal – is also a huge strength.

Much like the rest of their rivalry, the margin for error is very fine for both players’ baseline strategies.

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Nadal’s second-serve

Since the conditions may not favour Nadal’s groundstrokes in particular, the Spaniard may well be looking at employing an aggressive strategy on serve to win as many free points as possible.

Nadal’s second serve has played a role in his domination at Roland Garros. Prior to the start of the tournament, he had won 58.9% of points with it at the French Open throughout his career, significantly higher than the tournament average of 49.42%.

His second-serve speeds have been significantly higher than Djokovic’s at the French Open so far, a strategy which has been more successful. Nadal’s average second-serve speeds at the tournament stand at 154 km/h, as opposed to Djokovic’s 142 km/h. The Spaniard has won 75 points on it, as compared to Djokovic’s 52.