BA.4, BA.5 variants unlikely to spur 4th wave, say experts

Nagpur: Following confirmation of presence of Omicron sub-variants BA.4 and BA.5 in the country by Indian SARS-CoV-2 Genomics Consortium (INSACOG), state health minister Rajesh Tope said Maharashtra is not anticipating a new wave, while doctors said the next wave is likely to be caused by a new variant and not these two.
Globally, scientists are concerned due to the immune escape mechanism of these sub-variants, which have mutations with receptor-binding domain.
Tope said, “Our recovery rate is more than 98% and a very few cases are coming daily. Hospitalization rate is almost zero. We are celebrating all public festivals, events, gatherings without any restrictions. So, there is no need to worry now.” The government has achieved good vaccination coverage and will continue to work on the inoculation front, he added.
Dr Rajesh Karyakarte, state coordinator for genome sequencing, said the third wave is over now. “The possibility of BA.4 triggering a new wave is weak. It has a mutation akin to delta variant which has already caused the second wave in India last year. Vaccine coverage has been phenomenal in our country. We need to wait and watch. We need to keep a watch on hospital admissions,” he said.
Critical care specialist Dr Rajan Barokar said, “We don’t have patients affected by new variants, but we keep getting queries. Yet, the possibility of a new wave looks weak.”
Infectious disease specialist Dr Ashwini Tayade said both — BA.4 and BA.5 — have higher immune evasion capacity and infectivity than previous variants. “But I doubt if they are capable of causing another wave, particularly in our area as we have good vaccine coverage and herd immunity. But yes, I would still like to warn people as quite a few of us are due for booster dose and hesitant about it — that’s not a good option as immunocompromised will be at higher risk for complications like we have seen in Omicron wave,” she said, adding mutations haven’t caused mortality.
Infectious disease specialist Dr Nitin Shinde too ruled out a new wave. “There is no possibility of a 4th wave since Omicron has lost virulence. It is more of an upper respiratory tract infection. There is some evidence that Omicron is turbocharging immunity in people who have taken Covid vaccines,” he said.
He added population immunity in most countries is very high and that hospitalization due to BA.4 has been very low in South Africa.