Share Market Week Ahead: Here's what to expect on Dalal Street

Equity benchmark Sensex retreated over 1,100 points to 57,197 on April 22, 2022 against 58,338.93 on April 13. Likewise, the 50-share NSE Nifty index declined over 300 points to 17,171.95 during the same period. 
 
The benchmark indices extended their fall for the second straight week as rising concerns over inflation and disappointed March quarter results by select index heavyweights dampened sentiment. 
 
Where are the markets headed next week? Will the Bulls make a comeback? Well, here's what experts say: 
 
Yesha Shah, Head of Equity Research, Samco Securities remains hopeful that till the time 17,000 - 16,800 remains defended, the overall positioning at the end of the week is not so convincing. 
 
Also, Shah pointed out that one must keep a close tab on how global markets behave. As far as levels are concerned, 17,300 - 17,450 are to be treated as immediate hurdles; whereas on the flip side, the crucial support remains at 17,000 - 16,800. 

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"Traders are advised not to trade aggressively till the time trend becomes clear and also, unlike the previous weeks, we are not left with any convincing idea in individual stock as well. So, one needs to be very selective when it comes to stock centric approach and should ideally follow strict stop losses for momentum bets," he added. 
 
According to Sameet Chavan, Chief Analyst-Technical and Derivatives, Angel One Ltd, While the benchmark is likely to now remain range-bound between 16,800 to 18,100 levels, traders are advised to go into the next week with a bullish bias. 
 
However, a decisive break below the 16,800 level will negate the bullish view and may result in short-term weakness, he said. 
 
Chavan added that market sentiment next week will primarily be driven by the quarterly results and the monthly expiry. Further, as Covid cases are rising in various Indian locations, the pace of its spread will be kept an eye on. 
 
"Globally, movement in Treasury yields and dollar index coupled with developments on in the Ukraine-Russia conflict will influence market movements. While no other major domestic or global macro events are scheduled for next week, the factors highlighted above will keep markets choppy. Investors are thereby advised to navigate prudently and avoid aggressive trades," he noted. 

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Sharing the technical view, Sumeet Bagadia, Executive Director, Choice Broking said that after forming the evening star on the weekly chart, the index has formed a Doji candlestick which shows indecisiveness among the trades. 

Moreover, the index has also faced resistance from falling trend lines and showed profit booking from higher levels. On the daily chart, It has failed to close above the 17,200 level, indicating traders will opt to sell on rise. 
 
"Immediate support of 17,000 has already been violated already, so next strong support would be on 16800 followed by 16600. Short-term investors may opt for stock-specific action with a positive bias. Indicators such as MACD and RSI show negative crossover further indicating weakness in price action. Overall, the Nifty index is having support at 16800 marks while resistance at 17,550 followed by 17,650, while Banknifty support is placed at 35,500 followed by 35,200 and resistance at 37,200," Bagadia added. 

Mohit Nigam, Head - PMS, Hem Securities said, "On Friday, Nifty 50 closed its day above below resistance zone of 17,200 and if index holds below 17,200 mark for coming trading sessions then we may see more downward move towards 16,800-16,500 mark which are another support zone on the downside."

  He added that the crucial support for Nifty 50 is 17,000 while Nifty may face some resistance at 17,500.