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WHO is yet to share the confidence interval for the present statistical model across various countries, according to the ministry
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Amid the deadly second wave and accusations of hiding the death toll, India has questioned the World Health Organisation's methodology to estimate Covid-19 mortalities in the country.
India opposed the model and said that this mathematical modelling cannot be applied to estimate the death figures for such a vast country considering the geographical size and population.
"India has been in regular and in-depth technical exchange with WHO on the issue. The analysis, while using mortality figures directly obtained from Tier –I sets of countries, uses a mathematical modelling process for Tier II countries (which includes India). India’s basic objection has not been with the result (whatever they might have been) but rather the methodology adopted for the same" said the union health ministry in a statement.
The ministry said that India has shared its concerns with the methodology along with the other member states through a series of formal communications including six letters issued to WHO and virtual meetings held on 16 December 2021, 28 December 2021, 6 January 2022, 25 February 2022 and the SEARO Regional Webinar held on 10th February 2022.
During these exchanges, specific queries have been raised by India along with other member states like China, Iran, Bangladesh, Syria, Ethiopia and Egypt regarding the methodology, and use of unofficial sets of data, the statement added.
"The concern specifically includes on how the statistical model projects estimates for a country of geographical size and population of India and also fits in with other countries which have smaller populations. Such one size fits all approaches and models which are true for smaller countries like Tunisia may not be applicable to India with a population of 1.3 billion," it said.
Meanwhile, WHO is yet to share the confidence interval for the present statistical model across various countries, the ministry added.
India has asserted that if the model is accurate and reliable, it should be authenticated by running it for all Tier I countries and the result of such exercise may be shared with all member states.
The model assumes an inverse relationship between monthly temperature and monthly average deaths, which does not have any scientific backing to establish such a particular empirical relationship, according to the ministry.
However, India is a country of continental proportions climatic and seasonal conditions vary vastly across different states and even within a state therefore, all states have widely varied seasonal patterns. Thus, estimating national level mortality based on these 18 states data is statistically unproven, it said.
The ministry informed that the test positivity rate for Covid-19 in India was never uniform throughout the country at any point in time. But, this variation in covid-19 positivity rate within India was not considered for modelling purposes.
Further, India has undertaken Covid-19 testing at a much faster rate than what WHO has advised. India has maintained molecular testing as the preferred testing method and used rapid antigens for screening purposes only. Whether these factors have been used in the model for India is still unanswered.
"While India has expressed above and such similar concerns with WHO but a satisfactory response is yet to be received from WHO," it said.
While India has remained open to collaborating with WHO as data sets like these will be helpful from the policy-making point of view, India believes that in-depth clarity on methodology and clear proof of its validity are crucial for policymakers to feel confident about any use of such data, according to the ministry.