Bochahan bypoll: Snubbing Mallah leader Sahani, taking Bhumihars for granted cost BJP dearly

Another key message from the Bochahan loss for the BJP is considering upper caste Bhumihar its pocket borough. A fair chunk of Bhumihar voters reportedly voted for the RJD candidate instead of their predictable choice, BJP.

The important aspect of Bochahan bypoll result is BJP can no longer take EBC Sahani/Nishad votes for granted. Even though BJP has leaders in MP Ajay Nishad in its rank, VIP chief Mukesh Sahani was able to split away Mallah and some other votes from BJP. VIP got over 29,000 votes in the Assembly segment that has over 35,000 Mallah votes besides over 55,000 Scheduled Caste (SC) votes. This means the VIP cut away not just substantial Sahani votes but also some SC votes.

Sahani’s candidate may not have won, but he has been able to make a statement about having emerged as a potential voice of EBC Mallah, which are about 2.5 per cent of the state population with concentration in Muzaffarpur, Madhubani, Darbhanga Khagaria. For Sahani, it is just a matter of convertibility in results. He was able to do so by winning four of 11 seats contested in 2020 Assembly polls in alliance with the NDA. He has been again trying to align with the RJD to ensure mutual conversion of votes in future polls.

EBC votes in Bihar are always called floating votes and Sahani and Dhanuk are its major components. EBCs never had a strong leader after former CM Karpoori Thakur. Though there has been strong EBC leaders like former MPs Mangani Lal Mandal and Captain Jainarayan Nishad, they hardly filled the slot of pan-Bihar EBC leader. Sahani is an emerging EBC leader and has proved his point in Bochahan.

The Bochahan bypoll’s another takeaway is unusual shift of upper caste Bhumihar voters towards RJD, which is otherwise taken as its sworn enemies. About 20-25 Bhumihar voters are said to have supported RJD. Several Bhumihar youths were seen sharing dais with RJD’s Leader of Opposition in Assembly Tejashwi Prasad Yadav. Bochahan has over 55,000 Bhumihar voters.

Bhumihars may not have been fully siding with RJD but a fair chunk of them do seem to serve message to BJP that Bhumihars can never be taken for granted. Bochahan bypoll results may not be a hint towards shifting political affiliation but sending a message to the NDA and registering its ire towards miniscule or zero representation to its community at places of power. A local factor in Bochahan was former BJP MLA Suresh Sharma, a Bhumihar, completely dissociating himself from the Bochahan campaign. Sharma has been upset with the BJP after having lost 2020 Assembly polls. Sharma had also been upset with the party giving more weight to another Muzaffarpur leader, Ramsurat Rai (a Yadav), who is a minister. The NDA had won Bochahan thrice consecutively, but the RJD upset its applecart due to “upset Mallah” and “disgruntled Bhumihar” factors.