The Indian is expected to continue its positive bias amid a rise in risk appetite in global markets. Further, FII inflows into local stocks will support the domestic currency. However, sharp gains may be capped on rise in crude oil prices and strong dollar. “Investors will track the war in Ukraine and will keep an eye on new reports of war crimes which may add pressure on US and European nations to further tighten sanctions on Russia. US$INR (April) is expected to trade in a range of 75.50-76.00,” said ICICI Direct. The rupee started the financial year 2022-23 on a bullish note and settled 19 paise higher at 75.55 against the US dollar on Monday, supported by a firm trend in domestic equities.
Heena Naik- Research Analyst – Currency, Angel One Ltd
“USDINR started off Monday’s session at 75.77 levels and from thereon it has fallen towards 75.43 levels. The reason behind this prominent fall could be attributed to the huge influx of flows into the system that has kept the Indian equities in green too. Moreover, suspected dollar selling by large foreign banks also worked in favor of the Indian Rupee. The fall in USDINR has influenced EURINR, GBPINR, and JPYINR too. This trend in Rupee is only temporary as there is a high possibility of USDINR bouncing back towards 76.00 levels as geo-political risks still persist. USDINR may trade between 75.20 and 76.30 levels this week.
Gaurang Somaiya, Forex & Bullion Analyst, Motilal Oswal Financial Services
“Rupee rose after consolidating in a narrow range for the past few sessions as global crude oil prices retraced from higher levels and as FIIs turned net buyers in the equity segment. This week, focus will be shifting to the RBI policy statement and expectation is that the central bank could keep rates unchanged. Inflation remains a major concern for most central banks across the globe and investors expect that inflation could spin out of control and the RBI is already behind the curve on tackling inflation. Today, focus will be on the services PMI and trade balance number that will be released from the US and a better-than-expected number could extend gains for the dollar. We expect the USDINR(Spot) to trade sideways and quote in the range of 75.30 and 75.80.”
Anindya Banerjee, VP, Currency Derivatives & Interest Rate Derivatives at Kotak Securities
“USDINR had opened stronger, at 76.11 levels on April futures due to stronger US Dollar Index. However, fall in oil prices and stronger equity markets pushed the pair lower. At the same time, lumpy corporate inflows whacked futures towards 75.60, day’s low. Futures prices recoupled only a fraction of the day’s losses and closed at 75.73. Bias is downward, as long as the pair is not closing above 76.10 levels on April futures. Support is near 75.40/50 levels. There are two event risks over this week: Wednesday night is US Fed meeting minutes. Traders will focus on what the US Fed has to say about balance sheet reduction. On Friday is the RBI meeting.”
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