The Indian rupee is expected to depreciate on Thursday amid risk aversion in the global markets and persistent FII outflows. Further, investors will remain cautious ahead of major economic data from the US and Opec+ meeting. “Strong labor market and elevated inflation will further strengthen the case for aggressive monetary tightening by Fed. Meanwhile, weakness in dollar and softening of crude oil prices may prevent further downside in rupee,” said ICICI Direct. The local unit declined by 21 paise to 75.94 against the US dollar in previous session as surging crude oil prices and fuel rate hikes by the oil marketing companies fanned fears of inflation and interest rate hikes. However, a strong rally in the domestic equities capped the rupee’s loss. Development in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the movement of crude oil prices remain the main focus for forex markets.
Anindya Banerjee, VP, Currency Derivatives & Interest Rate Derivatives at Kotak Securities
“USDINR spot closed 7 paise lower at 75.91, as lackluster trading continued. Pair had opened gap down near 75.64, but demand for $ from oil marketing companies pushed the pair towards 75.91 by close of trading. Near term bias remains of a range between 75.60 and 76.20 on spot.”
Gaurang Somaiya, Forex & Bullion Analyst, Motilal Oswal Financial Services
“Rupee rose in the opening session following reports that talks between Russia and Ukraine are progressing. The currency also got support as global crude oil prices retraced from higher levels. Dollar fell against its major crosses after the release of the data and in the next couple of sessions market participants will be keeping an eye on the employment numbers that will be released from the US. Better-than-estimate employment number could support the dollar at lower levels. We expect the USDINR(Spot) to trade sideways and quote in the range of 75.60 and 76.20.”
Amit Pabari, MD, CR Forex Advisors
“The Indian Rupee is expected to open around 75.75 and is likely to be pegged in the 75.50 to 76.00 zone with a mixed bias. Equities are trading on a mixed note. FIIs are resilient to investing despite the recovery in the sentiment. For the quarter, they have been net sellers of $15.69 billion. The RBI seems busy managing the liquidity, forex rates and planning the government’s huge borrowing programme for FY 23. The impact of Sell/Buy swap on Rupee- which was seen once trading at three weeks high of 75.64, didn’t last long as importers rushed to cover their payables and Rupee fell again up to 75.90 levels at the close. Overall, the 75.50 to 75.70 zone will act as crucial support for the pair. Whereas, resistances are located at 76.20 and 76.50 levels.”
Tapish Pandey, Research Analyst, SMC Global Securities
“The dollar rupee is likely to remain under pressure as oil prices fell sharply on news that the Biden administration is weighing releasing some 1 million barrels of oil per day from strategic reserves for several months in a bid to calm soaring crude prices. In addition, weak dollar and Foreign Investors inflows is also supporting the sentiment. Overall trading setup is also indicating southward momentum for the day as its trading below key moving averages along with given a negative crossover in daily chart in recent times.”
“For now, USDINR has support placed at 75.70-75.72 levels. Break below the same may witness sharp selling in pair while on higher side, resistance is seen near 76.34 and trading below the same, sentiment will remain unchanged. For the day, we are looking USDINR to trade in range of 75.72 to 76.34 with negative bias.”
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