The Indian rupee is expected to appreciate on Wednesday amid soft dollar and decline in crude oil prices. Meanwhile, persistent FII outflows and weak global market sentiments may hurt the currency. “Market participants fear elevated inflation may push major central banks globally to tighten monetary policy aggressively. In turn, this may prompt foreign investors to pump out liquidity from emerging markets. US$INR (March) is expected to trade in a range of 76.50-76.10,” said ICICI Direct. Continuing its winning streak for a fourth straight session, the rupee appreciated 17 paise to 75.97 against the US dollar in the previous session as risk appetite improved in view of broader weakness in the greenback and a firm trend in domestic equities. However, persistent foreign fund outflows restricted gains in the domestic unit.
Anindya Banerjee, VP, Currency Derivatives & Interest Rate Derivatives at Kotak Securities Ltd
“USDINR spot closed 17 paise lower at 75.98, on the back of selling from exporters on the last day of spot for FY 23. With oil prices range bound and global risk sentiments stable, there were not many global cues. Over the near term bias remains of a range between 75.75 and 76.50 on spot.”
Sugandha Sachdeva, VP- Commodity & Currency Research, Religare Broking
The Indian rupee edged higher amid the slide witnessed in crude oil prices and “risk-on” sentiments in the markets. Crude prices have given up much of the risk premium amid hopes of reconciliation as Russia and Ukraine seem to be moving towards a peace deal. Besides, China’s intensifying Covid-19 crackdown has raised worries about weak fuel demand from the world’s largest oil importer, further suppressing oil prices.
However, gains in the local currency have been capped as investors are bracing for aggressive rate increases by the US Fed in its battle against high inflation. In such a backdrop, the rupee is primed to trade with a sideways bias in the short term. Markets would now focus on employment numbers from the US, which shall provide further cues to the domestic currency.
Gaurang Somaiya , Forex & Bullion Analyst, Motilal Oswal Financial Services
“Rupee consolidated in a narrow range but trade with a positive bias against the US dollar as talks progressed between Russia and Ukraine to end their weeks-long conflict. Rupee gained in the overnight session as Crude oil prices witnessed another day of sell-off following talks progressing between the two nations and also as concerns of new lockdown announcement in China could hit global demand. Dollar fell against its major crosses in yesterday’s session despite a fall in consumer confidence number that was released from the US. Today, focus will be on further updates that could come in following ongoing talks between Russia and Ukraine officials. From the US, market participants will be keeping an eye on the private payrolls and final GDP number to gauge a view for the greenback. We expect the USDINR(Spot) to trade with a negative bias and quote in the range of 75.50 and 76.05.”
Rahul Kalantri, VP Commodities, Mehta Equities Ltd
“USDINR 27 April futures contract unable to cross its resistance level of 76.5500 and slipped again. On the daily technical chart, the pair is unable to cross its resistance level of 76.5500 and plunged again. MACD is showing negative divergence on the daily technical chart and RSI is also fetching below 50 levels. As per the daily technical chart, we observed that a pair slipped below 76.3500 levels and technical indicators are showing weakness on the chart. Looking at the technical set-up, USDINR pair is looking weak and could test its next support level of 76.06-75.95 again.”
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