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Ever conscious of its public image, the Pakistan Army no longer wants to be associated with a government that has proved inept from the beginning. There is nothing new about an elected civilian government in Pakistan being ousted mid-stream, after it has done something to upset the Army. Prime Minister Imran Khan is likely to be voted out of office next week if he does not resign by then, as he does not appear to have the numbers required to defeat an Opposition no-confidence vote against him. But this time, there are no cries of democracy in danger. Pakistan’s political class never accepted Imran Khan as an elected leader, he is described as the “selected” prime minister. It is no secret that the Army and Inter-Services Intelligence did a lot of leg work to ensure that he won the 2018 election and put together his coalition. Now, the Army seems to have conveyed to him that he no longer has their patronage, though in public it has used the word “neutral” to describe its position in the unfolding political drama. Though he has vowed to play “until the last ball” — one cabinet member has said there might be early elections; his party is readying for a physical showdown with the Opposition at competing rallies on March 27 — it may not help him win the match.
Ever conscious of its public image, the Pakistan Army no longer wants to be associated with a government that has proved inept from the beginning. Internationally too, Khan was unable to get any purchase with the Biden administration, and the security establishment is miffed about his mishandling of relations with powerful western allies, at a time when it needs them to stabilise the situation in Afghanistan. But more than anything else, the prime minister’s falling out with Pakistan’s most powerful institution came when he tried to play divide and rule with the top leadership of the Army. Nawaz Sharif did that in 1999, and was ousted in a coup. Khan, who crossed a red line when he tried to assert himself by delaying the appointment of a new ISI chief, can consider himself more fortunate, as he is being allowed to leave office via a constitutional process.
What all this means, though, is that the Army continues to run Pakistan, and Khan’s successor must likely reach an agreement with Army Chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa before being approved for the job, so that he or she does not attempt to disrupt the “hybrid” civil-military system. In India, there was real disappointment at Nawaz Sharif’s judicial ouster in 2017, but tears will not be shed at Khan’s likely departure from office. While the India-Pakistan relationship has not been top of the agenda for the Modi government since 2016, Khan’s offer to move several steps forward if Delhi took the first step, sat uneasily with the personal nature of his attacks against the Indian leadership, especially after the 2019 decision on Kashmir. His praise for India’s “independent” foreign policy now wins him no marks in Delhi. The February 2021 agreement for diligently observing the 2003 ceasefire remains the only one between the two sides in years. It was the result of a backchannel process in which the Pakistan government seems to have had little role, and was signed between the two militaries.
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