Indian equity markets rebounded last week after a continuous fall for four weeks thanks to some positive news flows on the Russia-Ukraine standoff, BJP victory in four states, cool off in crude oil prices, and selling exhaustion. FOMC meeting and Russia-Ukraine issue will be key global factors this week. “With election behind, the equity markets will move on to more important aspects in the near term – the Russia-Ukraine geopolitical conflict, the US Fed rate hikes, elevated crude oil prices and the RBI’s response to rising inflationary pressures in the economy. We expect markets to stay volatile until the existing headwinds subside,” said Siddhartha Khemka, Head – Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.
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Global markets: Markets in Asia were mixed in Monday morning trade. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index dropped 2.77%, and Mainland Chinese stocks were also lower, with the Shanghai composite down 1.5% while the Shenzhen component shed 1.46%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed 1.03% while the Topix index advanced 0.97%. South Korea’s Kospi lagged, dipping 0.54%. Meanwhile, all Major US stock indexes stumbled on Friday as tech and growth shares led a broad decline and investors worried about the conflict in Ukraine while attention turned to the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting this week.
Nifty technical view: “A small positive candle was formed at the highs on the daily chart, which indicate a range bound action for the market. This cooling off of the short term trend was due after a sharp upmove of around 1000 Nifty points in the previous three sessions. Having placed at the crucial overhead resistance of 16800-17000 levels, further consolidation movement with high volatility is expected,” said Nagaraj Shetti, Technical Research Analyst, HDFC Securities.
“The broader negative pattern like lower highs and lower lows is intact in Nifty as per daily chart. A decisive upmove above the hurdle of 16800-17000 levels not only negate this bearish setup but also change the whole pattern towards upside. Inability to surpass above the hurdle could trigger another round of weakness from the highs. A bullish engulfing type candle pattern was formed on the weekly chart, which is not a classical one,” Shetti added.
Nifty resistance, support levels: “Nifty could correct minorly for the next few sessions and later rise to cross the 16,800 highs towards 17,050. On falls, it can take support from the 16,250-16,350 band. The US Fed meet on 16 March could throw up some volatility in global equity and bond markets,” said Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Research, HDFC Securities.
Call/PUT OI: Maximum Call open interest was seen at 18,000 strike, followed by 17,000 strike, and 17,500 strike. Maximum Put open interest is seen at 16,000 strike, followed by 16,500 strike and 15,500 strike.
Stocks under F&O ban on NSE: There is no stock under F&O ban on NSE for 14 March. Securities in the ban period under the F&O segment include companies in which the security has crossed 95 percent of the market-wide position limit.
