The international experts pointed out that the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions would prevail throughout the monsoon season. (File Photo) In less than two decades from now, extreme weather events like intense heat waves and rainfall events triggered by El Nino are set to increase, a new study has shown. El Nino is the unusual warming of the ocean waters along the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. It is known to affect the monsoons, cause intense heat and droughts, globally.
In recent years, the 2015 El Nino event had significantly affected India’s rainfall, crop output and thus the overall economy. In this study, researchers from the University of Exeter, UK have tried to calculate the ‘time of emergence’ of changes along the tropical Pacific Ocean under four possible carbon emissions scenarios. They concluded that drastic rainfall changes were on the cards starting in the 2040s.
“When looking at changes in El Niño rainfall patterns, the best estimate of the time of emergence of changes converges on 2040 in all of the four emissions scenarios considered,” the study published in the Nature Climate Change, noted.
Normally, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) observes a weaker monsoon over India during El Nino years, even though the Met agency says that there is no one-on-one association between the two.
During 1951 – 2021, there have been 15 years dominated by El Nino including 2015, 2009, 2004, 2002, 1997, 1991, 1987, 1982, 1972, 1969, 1965, 1963, 1957, 1953 and 1951. Of these, nine summer monsoon seasons over the country recorded deficient rain by more than 90% (of the Long Period Average (LPA) of 88cm for the country for June to September). During one of the strongest El Nino years in 1997 too, India’s seasonal rain was over 100% of the LPA, the IMD data showed.
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