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Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday recognized the independence of separatist regions in eastern Ukraine – Donetsk and Luhansk – and paved the way to provide them military support.
This is being seen as a direct challenge to the West and has fueled fears that Russia could imminently invade Ukraine.
The move came amid a spike in skirmishes in the eastern regions that Western powers believe Russia could use as a pretext for an attack on the western-looking democracy that has defied Moscow’s attempts to pull it back into its orbit.
Putin justified his decision in a far-reaching, pre-recorded speech blaming NATO for the current crisis and calling the US-led alliance an existential threat to Russia.
After his speech, Putin signed decrees in the Kremlin recognizing those regions' independence and called on lawmakers to approve measures paving the way for military support.
Ukrainians shrugged off the move as meaningless, but it remains a fundamental blow to their country eight years after fighting erupted in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions between Russia-backed separatists and Ukrainian forces.
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy sought to project calm, telling the country in an address overnight: “We are not afraid of anyone or anything. We don't owe anyone anything. And we won't give anything to anyone."
His foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, would be in Washington on Tuesday to meet with Secretary of State Antony Blinken.
Here's a look at the implications of the move.
What are the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics?
The regions were once Ukraine’s industrial heartland, part of largely Russian-speaking provinces in the nation’s southeast.
Russia-backed separatists seized control of the regions along the two nations’ border after the overthrow of Ukraine’s pro-Kremlin president, a move that coincided with Russia annexing Crimea in 2014.
The fighting has killed about 14,000 people and left more than 1.4 million internally displaced within Ukraine, according to government data.
The rebels hold about one-third of the provinces, calling them the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) and the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR).
No nation recognized them until Russia did so. Russia has been giving them financial and military support since their formation and has granted Russian passports to hundreds of thousands of people there.
Why does Russia want their recognition?
Russia wants Donetsk and Luhansk to gain autonomy that gives them an effective veto over major shifts in Ukraine’s orientation – namely the Western integration backed by a sizable majority of the country’s 41 million population.
That would be political suicide for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who’s struggling to boost economic growth and curb corruption.
He told diplomats that Ukraine needs a “very clear perspective" about its NATO membership, and North Atlantic Treaty Organization Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said that the alliance continues to support Ukraine’s efforts to become a member.
Why about the Minsk Accords?
A cease-fire in the region has always been shaky, with thousands of violations each year, according to international monitors.
In a hair-trigger situation, with thousands of Russian troops massing along Ukraine’s borders, this is the most likely source of a spark for a wider conflict.
Russia has offered citizenship to the residents of the separatist regions, and a threat to their lives could be used as justification for further action.
Why is the West interested?
If US warnings of an invasion are borne out, it could mark the worst European security crisis since World War II, dwarfing the tensions triggered by Putin’s takeover of Crimea and the earlier fighting in eastern Ukraine.
The West also has invested a lot financially in Ukraine’s success. The International Monetary Fund has offered support to the nation, billions of dollars have flowed in from the World Bank and the European Union, and the US has provided loan guarantees and military aid.
What can be its effects on Moscow?
The US, EU and UK have been finalizing a package of sanctions after Putin's move.
US President Joe Biden issued an executive order prohibiting US investment, trade, and financing to separatist regions of Ukraine, and Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield said additional American sanctions against Russia would be coming on Tuesday.
The UK is set to impose sanctions on Russia as soon as Tuesday, while the European Union will start the process of agreeing on penalties for Putin’s actions.
Potential measures include targeting its billionaires, extra restrictions on sovereign debt, disrupting lenders’ ability to use dollars or blocking the new Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline between Russia and Germany.
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