India to have normal monsoon this year, forecasts Skymet
Premium- Monsoon 2022: India to witness normal monsoon this year, predicts Skymet
The Southwest monsoon, which brings more than 75 per cent of the country's rainfall during June-September, will be normal this year, Skymet Weather, a private weather forecaster said on Monday. Skymet has come out with the ‘Preliminary Monsoon Forecast Guidance for 2022’. Skymet expects the upcoming Monsoon to be ‘normal’.
“Monsoon has large inter-annual fluctuations in its arrival, intensity, duration, and withdrawal. It is rather early to decode all these aspects at this stage. However, there are precursors to get an early glimpse and gauge its health during the four-month-long season," according to Skymet.
The last two monsoon seasons have been driven by back-to-back La Nina events, which has started shrinking now. It also means that Monsoon 2022 is going to be a devolving La Nina to start with and turn neutral later.
According to AVM GP Sharma, President – Meteorology and Climate Change, Skymet Weather, “After observing back-to-back La Nina during 2020 & 2021, the chances of yet another episode is ruled out, statistically. The Sea Surface Temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are likely to rise soon and the probability of continued La Nina will fall.
However, ENSO predictability decreases during the upcoming ‘spring barrier’ and at times leads to an unstable ENSO regime. This will get factored in our April forecast. While the monsoon trough is over the South Tropical Indian Ocean, IOD events are typically unable to form till April. Reliable trends of ‘Indian Ocean Dipole’ emerge in the latter half of it. Early indications suggest it to be ‘neutral’ but leaning close to the negative threshold. IOD-ENSO interaction will hold the key to the overall health of Indian Summer Monsoon 2022".
Earlier this month, the Reserve Bank of India said retail inflation in India is expected to come well below its upper tolerance level, at 4.5 per cent, in the next fiscal year beginning April 2022, helped by fresh crop arrivals, supply-side interventions, as well as prospects of a good monsoon.
However, the hardening of crude oil prices presents a major upside risk to the inflation outlook. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) retained its inflation projection at 5.3 per cent for the current financial year.
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