The two most important economic documents – that is, the Economic Survey and the Budget – will set the near-term tone for the Indian stock market.
Economic Survey, which essentially gauges the health of the economy, will be tabled in the Parliament later today while the Union Budget will be presented tomorrow.
According to a media report, a single volume Economic Survey for 2021-22 will be tabled this time, which could project a growth of around 9% for the next financial year.
In recent times, making projections for the next year, particularly for GDP growth, has become tricky.
Even before Covid hit the economy, Economic Surveys in India had been way off the mark in projecting the outlook.
Consider this: Of the eight surveys presented during the Modi regime so far, three predicted either a somewhat correct number or underestimated the actual growth.
One was presented when the base year was changed in between.
The remaining four, all presented during the past four years, were way off the mark in predicting growth numbers.
Now, given that the govt’s forecast pertaining to the country’s growth holds supreme importance for stock market investors, these projections significantly affect the market sentiment.
We have with us Madan Sabnavis, Chief Economist at Bank of Baroda, to understand the key data points that the Street will be tracking this time from these two documents.
On their part, investors are starting off this week with lighter portfolios after a heavy bout of selling over the previous week.
The BSE Sensex and the Nifty50 declined 3% last week as profit booking ahead of the Budget, along with global headwinds kept investors on the sidelines.
Let’s go to Business Standard’s Avdhut Bagkar to know how to play the markets ahead of the Budget.
Clearly, markets are at their make-or-break levels and Budget will now hold the key for the next decisive move in the indices.
Apart from the Budget and the Economic Survey, Q3 earnings will keep stock-specific action alive on the Street this week.
DLF, Hindustan Petroleum, Indian Oil Corporation, Sun Pharma, Tata Motors, Adani Ports, Tech M, HDFC, Titan, Paytm, Bank of Baroda, and State Bank of India are some of the prominent companies which will report their December quarter results this week.
In the primary market, Vedant Fashions Ltd, which owns ethnic wear brand Manyavar, will launch its initial public offering on Friday, February 4.
Globally, FII activity, oil prices, and bond yields will decide the movement in equities.
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