Covid third wave peak projections for Bengaluru, Karnataka and other states here

COVID-19 will peak in Maharashtra, Gujarat and Haryana this week. (AFP) — COVID-19 will peak in Maharashtra, Gujarat and Haryana this week. **(AFP)**

2 min read . Updated: 19 Jan 2022, 11:16 AM IST Livemint

Covid third wave peak projections for other states and cities here

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The latest analysis of the Covid-19 situation by scientists reveals that the overall peak of the third wave in India will arrive on January 23 but the daily number of coronavirus cases reported is unlikely to cross 4 lakh.

Finally India. Trajectory with data up to 11th indicates the peak on 23th Jan with nearly 7.2 lakh cases per day. Actual trajectory is already deviating significantly, and actual peak is unlikely to cross 4 lakh cases/day. pic.twitter.com/2aUdatnuhY
— Manindra Agrawal (@agrawalmanindra) January 16, 2022

Dr Manindra Agrawal, Professor of IIT Kanpur, said that the third wave of COVID-19, which is caused by Omicron, has reached its peak in Delhi, Mumbai and Kolkata as predicted by IIT's Sutra model.

He further said that COVID-19 will peak in Maharashtra, Gujarat and Haryana this week.

In a series of tweets, the IIT Professor said, "There appear two plausible reasons for this: 1) there are two groups in the population, one with less immunity against Omicron and the other with more. The mutant first spread in the first group causing a sharp rise. Now the first group is exhausted and so the spread is slower."

"In Maharashtra, it is predicted to peak on 19th. May peak sooner since the trajectory is almost flat at present. Gujarat is predicted to peak on the 19th. Haryana is predicted to peak on 20th," he added.

Mumbai: peaked on 12th Jan, two days before model prediction. Peak value about 75% of model prediction. Numbers are decreasing rapidly now, as expected. pic.twitter.com/1cmsaRSKkC
— Manindra Agrawal (@agrawalmanindra) January 16, 2022

He further said that southern states like Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu will see the current wave peak next week.

"In Karnataka, the COVID-19 wave is predicted to peak on 23rd. A new phase just started and Tamil Nadu has been predicted to peak on 25th Jan. Trajectory has started deviating. Andhra Pradesh is predicted to peak on the 30th. No deviation yet from the predicted trajectory. Probably because of the spread in at a very early stage," he tweeted.

"However, Haryana is predicted to peak on the 20th. Now to some states like Assam is predicted to peak on 26th Jan. No phase change yet, but the blue curve is suggesting there will be one soon," he added.

Covid 3rd wave peak in these states and cities:

Assam: January 26

Bihar: January 17

Uttar Pradesh: January 19

Haryana: January 20

Gujarat: January 19

Maharashtra: January 19

Karnataka: January 23

Andhra Pradesh: January 30

Tamil Nadu: January 25

Bengaluru: January 22

Kolkata: January 13

Delhi: January 16

Mumbai: January 12

This is a mathematical projection by the Sutra consortium calculated based on Covid data.

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