On the brink

Ukraine has lost part of its territory, Crimea, to Moscow’s annexation in 2014. Kyiv is also angry at Moscow’s establishment of “independent republics” in its eastern regions adjacent to Russia. If Ukraine, historically part of Russia, is turning to the US, NATO, and the European Union for military, political, and economic support, Moscow sees NATO’s security commitment to Kyiv and Ukraine’s absorption into the EU’s orbit as unacceptable threats. Adding to the deep structural divergence is the fear that Russia might make good on its threat to invade Ukraine and trigger a war between Moscow and Kiev, backed by the West. Some in the West have suggested the threatened invasion of Ukraine by Russia has already begun with a cyber-attack on the government websites of Kyiv as part of hybrid warfare. Russian officials say it is Kyiv that is preparing to attack and retake Crimea. US officials have warned that Russia might be planning a false-flag operation to justify its armed aggression against Ukraine.

A silver lining to the dark clouds gathering over Europe is the fact that the two sides have not shut the door on further talks. Another positive development has been last week’s discussion of steps to reduce military tensions and build mutual trust. Although the West can’t give legal guarantees that they will never admit Ukraine into NATO, it has no plans to do so in the near term. Turning the de-facto moratorium into a more formal understanding should not be impossible. Ending the talks now has major downsides for both. A Russian aggression will in fact ensure what Moscow wants to prevent — Ukraine’s membership of NATO. A war with Russia will be terribly costly for the West and divert its energies away from multiple other challenges confronting it, including China. If Russia has no reasons to be a perennial spoiler, the West can gain much by making Moscow a stakeholder in European security.