This is the third day in running that the total cases in Mumbai have shown a decline. (Representational) MUMBAI ON Monday witnessed a sharp dip of 30 per cent in fresh Covid cases as the daily tally in the city fell from 19,474 on Sunday to 13,468. It also registered a decline in the test positivity rate at 23 per cent on Monday as compared to 28.5 per cent on Sunday, indicating initial signs of plateauing. This is the third day in running that the total cases in Mumbai have shown a decline.
The trend was seen across the state as Maharashtra too recorded a substantial drop in cases with only 33,470 fresh cases registered on Monday. The state had registered 44,388 new cases on Sunday. While some experts are hopeful that the low numbers were reflective of a probable plateauing of cases in the city, another section believes that the low numbers are due to the “Sunday effect” when testings are fewer and RT-PCR reports come after 24 hours.
Since January 7, Mumbai has been recording a steady decline in cases. On January 7, the city recorded 20,971 daily cases which dropped to 20,318 on January 8. The next day, it dropped further to 19,474. While on Monday, it dropped exponentially to 13,648 cases by recording a 30 per cent plunge.
The large drop in fresh Covid cases on Monday also corresponds with a drop in testing numbers compared to that of the previous days. On January 7, the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) conducted 72,442 tests, recording a 29 per cent Test Positivity Rate (TPR). On January 8, a total of 71,019 tests were conducted with 28.6 per cent TPR. The testing dropped further to 68,249 on January 9 and recorded a 28.5 per cent TPR. On January 10, the testing dropped further by 13 per cent with only 59,242 tests. It recorded a 23 per cent TPR.
Talking to The Indian Express, additional chief secretary Dr Pradeep Vyas attributed this dip in numbers to the “Sunday effect”.
State surveillance officer Dr Pradeep Awate said that as a large number of the population has already been affected, the ratio of population vulnerable to the infection has decreased. The Omicron variant has a high transmission rate which shot the positivity rate up by nearly 30 per cent. “As seen in South Africa, the positivity rate surged to 32-34 percent, and then suddenly dropped. A virus also has its limits. So, these latest hits show that the peak is over but nothing concrete can be said until we have the data of the next one week,” he said.
Suresh Kakani, additional commissioner, BMC, said considering the sporadic behaviour of the current variant, it would be challenging to confirm the plateauing of the third wave. “But there is a stability in cases. It can be in the declining stage. But we have to wait till the end of this week to confirm,” he said.
Dr Satish Pawar, the Directorate of Health Service, said many people are using antigen kits at home for testing, leading to many cases going unreported.
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