Banks' profitability, asset quality, solvency at risk: Report

The third wave poses a risk to asset quality of banks as many restructured loans with a moratorium would be out of this dispensation in Q4'2022, according to ratings firm .

The increased spread of the new Covid-19 variant, Omicron is likely to result in the third wave of Surge in infections. " As banks restructured most of these loans with a moratorium of up to 12 months, this book is likely to start exiting the moratorium from Q4 FY'2022 and Q1 FY'2023" said Anil Gupta, vice president – financial sector Ratings, Icra." Therefore, a third wave poses high risk to the performance of the borrowers that were impacted by the previous waves and hence poses a risk to the improving trend of asset quality, profitability, and solvency.”

The restructuring also led to the upgradation of accounts, which would have slipped earlier, Icra said. This, coupled with the large recovery from Dewan Housing Finance Limited (DHFL) in Q2 FY'2022, led to the highest recoveries and upgrades for banks during the last three years. As a result, despite the elevated gross slippage rate of 3.2% in Q2 FY'2022, the gross and net non-performing advances (NPAs) remained on a declining trend.

The Icra analysis showed that the slippage rate and repayment rate were much higher for private banks compared to public sector banks, which possibly means that the moratorium period offered by public banks is likely to be higher than that offered by private banks. This could also be interpreted from the lower level of dual restructuring of loans ( loans restructured under the first wave getting restructured again under the second wave) for public sector banks as a longer moratorium would have obviated the need for second restructuring, Icra said.

Banks have implemented 83% of the total requests (76% for public sector banks and 86 for private sector banks) received underthe second wave leading to an overall restructuring of Rs. 1.2 trillion of loans till September 30, 2021. As the restructuring requests could be implemented till December 31, 2021, incremental restructuring could increase by 15-20 bps from the current levels.

“The third wave could revive the demand for the restructuring of loans, including loans which were already restructured. In such a case, visibility on the performance of the restructured loan book, which was earlier expected in FY2023, may now be expected in FY2024 as the moratorium on the existing restructured loans could be extended,” Gupta added.