Hospitalization numbers, not infections, should guide decisions on lockdowns
Premium- If, even without higher levels of hospitalization, the oxygen demand threatens to outrun installed capacity, then again, restrictions are called for
Hospitalization numbers, not infections, should guide decisions on lockdowns
Omicron is spreading at a rapid clip. State after state is sounding the alarm. Political leaders are racing to demonstrate their vigilance on public safety, announcing assorted curbs on movement and activity. Delhi has imposed a weekend curfew, Punjab a night curfew and limited capacity at cinemas and restaurants. Other states will follow suit with their variations and innovations. But, it is imperative to curb the urge to announce lockdowns going by the number of infections, however large that count might be. The count that matters for lockdowns is capacity utilization at hospitals, supplemented by capacity utilization of oxygen plants at hospitals.
Omicron is more infectious than other variants (France has detected a variety that might beat Omicron on this count, but it has not made its India landing, to the best of our knowledge) but is less virulent. While definitive accounts of its doings are still awaited, Omicron apparently goes for the throat than the lungs and is less life-threatening. Most people who contract Omicron do not manifest symptoms. Those who do, find them relatively mild. Still, some people, especially vulnerable ones, being immune-compromised, will end up in the hospital and take hospital beds, denying them to other covid non-covid patients.
About 15% of Covid patients used to require hospitalization. Now, whether Omicron will send more people scurrying to the hospital than other variants depends on the product of two numbers. One is a measure of how infectious Omicron is, compared to non-Omicron variants. Suppose it is x times more infectious. The other number is a measure of mildness. If it is one-fifth as virulent in sending people to the hospital, that number would be 0.2. At present, all we can say is that the multiple, call it y, is definitely less than one and larger than zero. If the product of x and y, or xy, is equal to one, the total number needing in-patient care would be the same, in the Omicron wave, as in the past. If xy is greater than 1, the numbers needing hospital care would be greater than in the past. If, on the other hand, as seems likely, if the product xy is less than one, fewer people would need to be hospitalized now than in previous waves.
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If hospitals seem likely to be overwhelmed with new admissions, there is a case for severe restrictions on people’s movements, like lockdowns. If, even without higher levels of hospitalization, the oxygen demand threatens to outrun installed capacity, then again, restrictions are called for. Simple point: look at hospitalization numbers, not the total number of infections, while reaching for the lockdown button.
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