COVID-19 Rules Tightens, Political Leaders Conducts Mass Rallies

As India is bracing for the third wave of COVID-19 wave, Indian authorities at the central and state level have started to impose strict protocol to prevent mass gathering in order to contain a spike in infections. 

Many state governments have imposed night curfews in major cities and restaurants ordered to limit customers, amid the growing scare of the Omicron variant. However, top leaders of several political parties are still holding large political rallies. Goa, Manipur, Uttar Pradesh, Punjab and Uttrakhand are the states which are going to the polls this year.

Delhi CM and Aam Aadmi Party leader Arvind Kejriwal tested positive for COVID-19, a day after he attended a massive rally in Uttarakhand. "I have tested positive for COVID. Mild symptoms. Have isolated myself at home. Those who came in touch with me in the last few days, kindly isolate yourself and get tested," AAP supremo tweeted.

Congress leader Priyanka Gandhi Vadra also informed that a member of her family and one of her staff have tested positive for COVID-19 on Sunday. "I have tested negative today however the doctor has advised that I remain isolated and test again after a few days," she tweeted. 

Also, BJP MP Manoj Tiwari also tested positive for novel Coronavirus. Tiwari took to Twitter and wrote (roughly translated to English), "Yesterday (Jan 2 ) I was feeling unwell since night. Due to a mild fever and cold, I could not even go for the Uttarakhand-Rudrapur campaign yesterday. I have come positive in the test today. Taking precautions, I isolated myself yesterday only. Please take care of yourself and your family." 

In the last few days, India is witnessing a constant spike in daily cases, similar to the second wave last year. 

On December 23, Prime Minister Narendra Modi chaired a high-level meeting to review the status of COVID-19 and Omicron, public health response measures, ICU/oxygen supported beds, human resources, IT interventions and status of vaccination, according to the PMO. 

The step came after he addressed a jam-packed rally in Varanasi, ahead of crucial Uttar Pradesh Assembly Elections. Modi along with Home Minister Amit Shah held many rallies in northern states and thousands of people gathered on open grounds.

At the end of December, the Allahabad High Court also requested the central government to stop political rallies and election campaigns in poll-bound states. 

Later on, the Election Commission (EC) said that all political parties were in favour of holding the Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly Elections on time adhering to all Coronavirus protocols. 

Addressing a press conference in Lucknow, Chief Election Commissioner Sushil Chandra said we met the representatives of all political parties and they told us that elections should be conducted on time along with Coronavirus regulations. 

Home to more than 220 million people, the Uttar Pradesh election is considered to be very crucial for political parties along with BJP as it also sets the stage for national elections. Meanwhile, the final list of eligible voters is going to be out on January 5, 2022, he said.

The election dates are yet to be declared by the EC. However, all political parties including Congress, Samajwadi Party, BJP, AAP etc. have already launched their campaigns with mass rallies violating all social distancing protocols.

Further, talking about the UP elections, Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath has said that the Omicron variant is “just a common viral fever." He asked people not to worry, but, urging them to obey rules and wear masks. The poll-bound UP is witnessing many political rallies and has been seeing a spike in daily cases in the past week. 

Coronavirus situation: 

The data of the Union Health Ministry and Family Welfare Ministry showed that India reported a total of 1,892 cases of Omicron variant across 23 states and Union Territories, out of which 766 have recovered. 

The authorities in Mumbai prohibited public gatherings of five or more residents until January 7. According to the official guidelines, closed places like restaurants and halls will have to adhere to a capacity cap of 50 per cent, open venues will have a capacity cap of 25 per cent. Delhi has already closed movie theatres, schools and gyms. 

Talking about the vaccination drive in the entire country, India has approved Merck's COVID-19 pill and two more vaccines for emergency use.

Vaccination for children aged 15 to 18 started on Monday. The health ministry on Tuesday said with the administration of close to 1 crore doses (99,27,797) vaccine doses in the last 24 hours, India’s COVID-19 vaccination coverage has exceeded the 146.70 core (146,70,18,464) mark. 

Impact of Economy: 

Asia's third-largest economy is on the path of revival after the deadly second wave, however, the business sector is concerned about the consequences due to the third wave and restrictions by the authorities. 

 Chief Economist at YES Bank, Indranil Pan said that from the growth perspective, we think that H2FY22 will be softer than the H1FY22, simply due to the base effects from last year. He said that the advance indicators are getting better (though with some bumps) and we believe that growth will start stabilizing with the passage of time. Importantly, the economic impact of the second wave was also more muted than it was due to the first wave of COVID-19. 

"With a wider spread of the vaccine and with seropositivity reports pointing to an increase, the probability for the economy shutting down in a significant way post a possible third wave is low. Mathematical models indicate that the peak of a third wave (in case we see one post the festive season) will be much more muted than during the second wave," he said. 

Importantly, the hospitalisation rates of those infected are expected to be low and this should not overburden the health infrastructure in the same way as it did during the second wave. From an economic standpoint, the savings rate in the economy is high (as precautionary savings were built up during the COVID-19) and this should be able to support the economy in the months ahead, said Pan.