Cyclone over Bay of Bengal likely next week

NEW DELHI: The first cyclone over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) in the 2021 post-monsoon season could develop in the south Andaman Sea in a few days and hit India’s eastern coast in the first week of December, several weather models indicate.
India Meteorological Department said a low-pressure system is likely to develop over south Andaman Sea around November 29-30.
“There a good consensus in weather models that this low-pressure system will intensify into some sort of a cyclonic storm. But we will have to wait a few days for the low pressure to form before getting more clarity,” said IMD chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra.
This year, no cyclonic storm formed over the Bay of Bengal in October and November, generally the peak months for cyclones in the region. The last such storm over the bay was cyclone Gulab in late September when the southwest monsoon was still active over the region. Cyclone Gulab made landfall over north Andhra Pradesh on September 26. Later, the remnants of the storm entered the Arabian Sea and intensified into a severe cyclone, Shaheen.
As of now, the European weather model (ECMWF) predicts that the cyclone would make landfall over north coastal Andhra Pradesh and recurve thereafter, moving over Odisha, Jharkhand and Bengal. The American GFS model, however, forecasts that the cyclone would recurve over the sea near north Andhra Pradesh and move towards Bengal.
“In either case, from the models it appears that Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Jharkhand and Bengal are likely to get good rainfall in the first week of December,” Mohapatra said.
Wet weather is also likely over the west coast, particularly Maharashtra and Gujarat, from around December 1. Some models forecast the formation of a low pressure/depression over the Arabian Sea heading towards south Gujarat.