The Sri Lanka Meteorological Department has this (Thursday) morning declared the formation of a low-pressure area over the South-East of Sri Lanka and adjoining South-West Bay of Bengal and lately located over land over the East of the island.
Earlier on Wednesday, India Meteorological Department (IMD) had delayed the formation of the ‘low’ by a day to Wednesday. On Thursday morning, however, it said the preparatory cyclonic circulation lies over the South-West Bay and gave time until the evening for it to gather mass and concentrate into a ‘low’ over the same region.
Future track of ‘low’
Once confirmed, the ‘low’ is expected to move West-North-West towards Sri Lanka and the adjoining South Tamil Nadu coast. The delay in its formation is not the best advertisement in regard to its prospects for future growth and intensification but there have been exceptions in the past when the slow grind has gifted such a system the perfect window to spring a surprise.
In fact, the IMD throws some hints in as much as it has forecast that squally winds (speeds reaching 40-50 km/hr gusting to 60 km/hr, equivalent to that of a depression) may prevail over South-West Bay, Gulf of Mannar along and off South Tamil Nadu coast for the rest of today (Thursday). Fishermen are advised not venture into these areas.
Track of cyclone Ockhi?
The IMD’s short-to-medium guidance puts it on a slow grind and on a course to the West past Sri Lanka into the South-East Arabian Sea before the ‘low’ turns West-North-West towards Lakshadweep along the track cyclone Ockhi took four years ago. Close on its track, another stronger system is likely to be generated upstream in the Bay during the next week.
Satellite pictures on Thursday morning showed the ‘low’/cyclonic circulation parked half over land over South-East Sri Lanka and half over the South-West Bay. The Sri Lanka Met Department said that cloudy skies can be expected over the island for the rest of the day. Showers/thundershowers may lash the Northern, North-Central, Eastern and Uva provinces and in Matale district.
Heavy showers over Lanka
Showers or thundershowers will occur in several places elsewhere over the island during the afternoon or night. Heavy showers above 10 cm can be expected at some places in Northern, North-Central, North-Western, Western, Sabaragamuwa and Central provinces while fairly heavy showers above 7.5 cm can be expected at some places elsewhere, the forecaster said.
The IMD has forecast light to moderate scattered/fairly widespread rainfall over Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam, Rayalaseema, South Interior Karnataka, Kerala, Mahe, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal during next five days until Monday. Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is predicted likely over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal during this period.
Isolated heavy rainfall is also very likely over South Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam tomorrow (Friday) and isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall over South Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam and Rayalaseema from Saturday to Monday. Isolated heavy rainfall is likely over Kerala and Mahe until Monday.