Kentucky vs. New Mexico State football: What you need to know before picking the game
LEXINGTON – Kentucky football looks to close out its 2021 home schedule with a win over New Mexico State Saturday. Here is what you need to know before picking the game, plus Courier Journal beat reporter Jon Hale’s prediction.
Kentucky is a heavy favorite over New Mexico State
Considering New Mexico State has yet to beat an FBS team this season and is coming off a 59-3 loss at Alabama, it is no surprise that Las Vegas odds-makers have installed Kentucky as a large favorite, but the 35.5-point spread still raises eyebrows.
Kentucky has beaten an opponent by 36 or more points just six times in Mark Stoops’ nine seasons as coach. Only two of those wins came against FBS opponents. The Wildcats’ largest margin of victory this season was 35-point blowout of Louisiana-Monroe in the 2021 opener.
Louisiana-Monroe has actually gone on to beat three FBS opponents this season, including an October upset of Liberty. That performance is significantly better than New Mexico State, whose only win came against FCS South Carolina State on Sept. 18.
New Mexico State ranks 127th of 130 teams in points allowed per game (40.2).
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New Mexico State played a key role in Mark Stoops’ UK tenure
There is at least some historical precedent for New Mexico State giving Kentucky a scare.
Stoops’ UK tenure looked on the verge of an early implosion when New Mexico State came to Lexington on Sept. 17, 2016 for the only previous meeting between the two teams.
The Aggies tied that game at 35 with a touchdown 38 seconds before the half. Kentucky had already lost to Southern Miss that season and been blowout the week before at Florida. The defense’s inability to slow New Mexico State only added to fears Stoops would not be able to turn the program around.
Instead, running back Benny Snell (137 rushing yards, four touchdowns) and quarterback Stephen Johnson (310 passing yards, three touchdowns) led Kentucky to a 62-42 win in their first meaningful contributions as Wildcats. That duo would go on to lead Kentucky to the 2016 Gator Bowl and launch a streak of six consecutive bowl seasons.
At the time of the 2016 matchup with New Mexico State, Stoops was 12-26 as Kentucky’s coach. He is 44-27 since.
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New Mexico State is coached by former Kentucky quarterback Doug Martin
The game is a homecoming for Aggies coach Doug Martin, who played for Kentucky from 1981 to 1984.
A four-year letter winner at UK, Martin completed 39 of 83 passes for 423 yards and one touchdown with six interceptions in the 1982 season. He also started his coaching career at Kentucky as a graduate assistant from 1986 to 1987.
Martin, a Tennessee native, made stops as a position coach and coordinator at East Carolina and Kent State before being promoted to head coach for Kent State in 2004. He went 29-53 across seven seasons there. After two years as an offensive coordinator at New Mexico State (2011) and Boston College (2012), Martin was hired as New Mexico State’s coach in 2013.
The former UK quarterback led New Mexico state to the 2017 Arizona Bowl but has failed to find the same success since the program left the Sun Belt Conference. In four years as an FBS Independent, New Mexico State is 7-29.
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Prediction: Kentucky 42, New Mexico State 14
There should be no point in this game where the outcome is in doubt, but I think Stoops and company will want to get some snaps for young backups as early as possible. That factor keeps it under the 35-point spread, but Kentucky still enjoys a confidence boost heading into the Governor’s Cup rivalry.
Email Jon Hale at jahale@courier-journal.com; Follow him on Twitter at @JonHale_CJ.