The opposition parties and farmer leaders were taken by surprise on November 19, as Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in a televised address, announced the repeal of the three farm laws. This move takes the sting out of farmers’ protests which had taken a political turn.
It leaves the farmer leaders with no other option but to end the protests, which had become a nuisance, and were causing disturbance to the public.
As per reports, farmer leader Mahendra Singh Tikait has announced that he will continue with the agitation till the Bills are repealed by Parliament. This stand could irk sympathisers of the protests as the Prime Minister has given an assurance to the nation.
After the excise duty cut on fuels, this decision leaves the opposition parties with no major issue going into the polls next year. It is a setback for political parties which had made the farmers’ protest a main poll plank.
Four states are the epicentre of farmer protests — Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Rajasthan, and Haryana. Two of these, UP and Punjab, go to the polls in early 2022. In UP, a vote for Yogi Adityanath is likely to strengthen Modi’s bid for re-election in 2024.
These Bills were announced last year to make farming a lucrative endeavour, and also open the floodgates to private investment, and innovation. It was backed by the industry as well as agri-economists.
Farmers of the entire nation barring these four states, either supported or were indifferent to these laws.
However, a section of people in the agriculture value chain, comprising rich farmers and middlemen with the help of opposition parties staged protests against the reforms. They have been sitting on a dharna in and around the capital for the last year.
Tikait, who contested the 2007 Haryana assembly polls in 2007 (with the Congress’ backing) and the 2014 Lok Sabha polls on an RLD ticket, took control of the agitation. The protests had taken a political turn with Tikait asking farmers and the public to vote out the BJP in elections.
A political problem — like what the current farmers’ protest is — demands a political solution. While the agitating farmer leaders and opposition parties were aiming to take advantage of this issue in the upcoming polls, the ruling party has blunted any such hopes by repealing the three laws.
In politics, timing is important. A decision earlier during the year on the three laws may not have been politically beneficial for the BJP. Just before the state elections in 2022, it provides a fillip to the BJP's fortunes, especially in Western UP, and Punjab.
It is rich for the Opposition to accuse the ruling party of taking this decision for solely electoral gains, given that it was the opposition parties that politicised a much-needed agrarian reform.
The breakup with the Shiromani Akali Dal, and the anger against the farm laws have dwindled the BJP’s prospects in Punjab. However, ex-Chief Minister Amarinder Singh’s exit from the Congress, and his open invitation of an alliance with the BJP provide a ray of hope to the saffron party. With the three farm laws being repealed the hurdle for the proposed alliance has been cleared. A multi-cornered contest in the upcoming polls could result in a hung assembly, and this could see Singh and the BJP play kingmakers.
Western UP which accounts for 20 percent of seats in the state has been the fulcrum of farmer protests with Tikait, who is a Jat leader, leading the charge. Jats account for 18 percent of the population in this region, and when 43 percent backed the BJP in 2017, the BJP swept the region.
It is widely believed that the party could register losses in this region in 2022. However, this decision of repealing could restrict the damage here now.
Modi in an emotional address on Gurpurab, while highlighting the steps taken by his government for the welfare of farmers, indirectly blamed vested interests for denying benefits of these laws to India’s small and marginal farmers. The electoral results will show whether BJP reaps electoral dividends or not.
Amitabh Tiwari is a former corporate and investment banker-turned political strategist and commentator. Twitter: @politicalbaaba.
Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.