Deja vu of first wave? Covid cases show sharp spike in Gujarat

AHMEDABAD: In the 24 hours ending at 5pm on Wednesday, Gujarat recorded 54 new positive cases – the highest in 131 days.
The last time the state had seen the cases above 50 was on July 10 at 53. Moreover, with discharge of 16 patients, the state added 38 positive cases, a rise of 15% in a day which is one of the highest in the recent past for the state. Now the active cases stand at 291, the highest since July 27 or 114 days.

The worrisome trend of Ahmedabad contributing half of the state’s daily positive cases continued with the city accounting for 28 or 51% of the cases.
So how does the trend measure up to the post-Diwali first wave in 2020? The analysis reveals that after two weeks (14 days) of the Diwali day, last year the rise compared to Diwali day was 42% - from 1,124 to 1,598. In 2021, however, the number has shot up by 86% from 29 to 54.
Another difference shown is the distribution of daily positive cases. Out of 1,598 cases on November 28 last year, 61% were from the four major districts – Ahmedabad, Surat, Vadodara and Rajkot. In 2021, on Wednesday 83% of the daily cases were recorded from the four districts, showing a large concentration in urban areas, especially in Ahmedabad, which increased its share from 22% last year to 51% this year.
Other cases recorded include 4 each from Surat and Vadodara cities, 3 each from Surat and Vadodara districts, 2 each from Rajkot city, Kutch and Valsad, and 1 each from Junagadh city, Bharuch, Jamnagar, Navsari, Rajkot and Tapi districts. Out of 33 districts of Gujarat, now 21 have at least one active Covid case.
Dr Dilip Gadhavi, president of Ahmedabad Medical Association (AMA), said the society must be on guard. “While the city-based doctors are not witnessing many cases, the figures surely indicate upward trend. The past waves have showed us that the country and state do follow international pattern of the pandemic. Thus, we urge all not to be complacent,” he said.