Why Samajwadi Party is BJP’s main rival in 2022 Uttar Pradesh assembly election

NEW DELHI: As all the major political parties step on the gas ahead of the 2022 Uttar Pradesh assembly election, Akhilesh Yadav-led Samajwadi Party (SP) seems to have emerged as the main rival of the ruling BJP.
On the other hand, Mayawati-headed Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the Congress appear to be also struggling to pose a serious challenge to the BJP government in the state led by the chief minister Yogi Adityanath.
But among the three main opposition parties, SP seems to be ahead of the other two in being seen as the BJP’s main rival in the present political scenario.
Akhilesh Yadav-led Samajwadi Party (SP)
While SP, BSP, and the Congress would obviously consider the BJP as their main opponent, the ruling party has identified Akhilesh Yadav’s party as its main rival.
The BJP leaders - including Prime Minister Narendra Modi, home minister Amit Shah and CM Yogi Adityanath - have not minced any words on several occasions to direct their attack against Akhilesh Yadav and the previous SP government in the state.
In a recent barb, Modi alleged in Siddharthnagar on November 15 that some dynasts in UP flourished from the "entire game" of corruption in medicines, ambulances, appointments, transfers and postings.
The PM further said the "cycle of corruption" ran 24 hours but the ordinary families in Purvanchal and the state got crushed.
Though he did not name anyone, it is understood that he referred to SP as "cycle" is the party's election symbol.
Amit Shah launched a frontal attack against SP last week during his visit to the rival party’s bastion of Azamgarh to lay the foundation stone of a university named after OBC icon Raja Suhel Dev.
He coined the epithet 'JAM' to compare SP and the BJP. He said SP has only JAM of Jinnah, Azam Khan and Mukhtar Ansari on offer for UP while the BJP has JAM of Jandhan, Aadhaar and Mobile. He asked the people to choose between the two JAMs.
Yogi Adityanath seeks to portray Akhilesh Yadav as a non-serious politician and SP as a party that indulges in a politics of appeasing Muslims. He alleges that the former CM wakes up late in the day and then spends more time with his friends than with a common man.
The reason why the BJP considers SP as its closest opponent is because of the three opposition parties, the performance of Akhilesh Yadav’s party has been the best in the last four assembly elections - except in 2007 - and in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls.
Moreover, unlike the other parties, SP has a solid vote bank of Muslims and Yadav (MY). Muslims constitute over 19 per cent of UP’s 25-crore population. While OBCs comprise 41 per cent of the state’s population, the population percentage of Yadavs is about 10 per cent.
UP was divided in 2001 and a separate state of Uttarakhand was carved out of it. In the first election held in 2002 after the division, SP won 143 seats and garnered 25.37 per cent of the votes; BSP came second by winning 98 seats and getting 23.06 per cent of the votes, BJP won 88 seats and fetched 20.08 per cent of the votes; while Congress won 25 seats and received 8.96 per cent of the votes.
In 2007, BSP got 206 seats and received 30.43 per cent of the votes, awarding Mayawati with the CM’s chair. SP came second by winning 97 seats and getting a vote share of 25.43 per cent, BJP won 51 seats and garnered 16.97 per cent of the vote share; while Congress won 22 seats and fetched 8.61 per cent of the votes.
In 2012, SP won 224 seats and fetched 29.13 per cent of the votes. Akhilesh Yadav became the CM after the election results were announced. BSP won 80 seats and garnered 25.91 per cent of the votes, BJP won 47 seats and got 15 per cent of the votes; while Congress won 28 seats and received 11.65 per cent of the votes.
In 2017, while the BJP won 312 of the total 403 seats and fetched 39.67 per cent of the votes; SP won 47 seats and garnered 21.82 per cent of the votes; BSP won 19 seats and got 22.23 per cent of the votes; and Congress won 7 seats and received 6.25 per cent of the votes.
Mayawati-headed Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP)
While SP’s vote bank consists of Muslims and Yadavs, that of BSP comprises Dalits which constitute over 20 per cent of the state’s population. Of this 20 per cent, Jatavs, who constitute over 11 per cent of UP’s population, are believed to be ardent supporters of Mayawati as she also belongs to the same caste.
In the last four assembly and two Lok Sabha elections, the BSP has out-performed SP only once each.
In the 2007 assembly election, it won the maximum number of seats and came to power. Brahmins had supported along with Dalits to catapult BSP to power. Otherwise, it has always come behind SP in the other three elections since 2002.
In the 2014 Lok Sabha election, while SP won five seats, BSP failed to open its account.
SP and BSP stitched a pre-poll alliance for the 2019 Lok Sabha election. The BSP performed better than SP. While BSP won 10 seats, SP would register victory on only five seats.
Indian National Congress (INC)
Among the four largest political parties in UP, the Congress has stood at the lowest spot in terms of both the number of seats won and the percentage of vote share garnered in all the last four assembly and two Lok Sabha elections.
It won two Lok Sabha seats in 2014 and only one - that of the party’s interim president Sonia Gandhi - in 2019.
Congress won the last assembly election in 1985 and remained in power till 1989. ND Tiwari was its last CM in UP. It was also when neither SP nor BSP had come into existence.
Congress general secretary Priyanka Gandhi has put all her might and resources at her disposal to seek the party’ revival in the state. However, with poor state leadership, lack of sizable committed party workers and disastrous performances at the hustings in the past two decades, the Congress seems to be in an unenviable position in UP.