It would be a mistake to say that President Biden’s first term is headed for stalemate and disappointment. But if you wondered out loud whether that could happen - whether as a Democrat or Republican - you’d be right on target.
It’s been a rough November for the donkeys. They lost the high-profile governor’s race in Virginia in a state that Biden won by 10 points a year ago. They barely avoided a similar embarrassment in an even bluer state, New Jersey. Biden’s approval rating is a dismal 46% -- and that’s after a slight uptick. Vice President Kamala Harris has somehow set the record for the lowest VP approval rating ever - 28%.
You want another number? Prices for consumers surged 6.2% in October compared with that month last year, the highest such increase in 30 years. Inflation is no longer a theoretical threat to people’s incomes. It’s real, and every consumer knows it. The president has gone from assuring us that summer’s inflation would quickly fade away to acknowledging that it may be with us for a while.
But hold on a minute, you say. Didn’t the Democrats just pass the $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill, one of the most impressive pieces of legislation on that issue in years - and with some Republican votes? Yes, they did, and it was a real accomplishment for Biden and his party. But in their usual ready-fire-aim manner, Democrats did that the week after they were humbled in Virginia, in part because voters didn’t see enough accomplishments from the party that controls Congress and the presidency.
And ironically, the passage of this bill sets up a bigger problem for Biden and the Dems. It was supposed to be linked with a larger social spending bill, once as big as $3.5 trillion. But liberals in Congress knew they’d have a hard time getting that to the Oval Office, so at first they insisted that it had to be passed first before the infrastructure bill could move forward.
But after weeks of bickering with Democratic moderates, the liberals finally realized that wouldn’t happen. So they reluctantly approved the infrastructure bill with promises from the centrists that the other one would follow.
They may get House moderates to agree to a smaller bill along these lines, but getting it past Democratic moderates Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona is looking harder and harder. Those two have stalled this bill for weeks, and Manchin said the inflation report may have eliminated his tentative support.
Democrats face the real prospect of this bill dying on the 5-yard line - making them look even less appealing going into next year’s mid-term elections, where their chances of holding the House and Senate are slim. Shove all of that in a blender, and you have a party that seems to have lost momentum and focus just as Republicans smell blood in the water.
In politics, as in sports, it ain’t over til it’s over. Congressional Democrats could rebound next year and the Biden/Harris polling numbers could get better. (They have almost nowhere to go but up.) But if Democrats have a rabbit in their hat, they need to pull it out very soon.
Thomas Taschinger, TTaschinger@BeaumontEnterprise.com, is the editorial page editor of The Beaumont Enterprise. Follow him on Twitter at @PoliticalTom