Experts caution against laxity as cases low even after festive rush

Nagpur: The last two weeks saw people travelling a lot, mixing up and shopping during the festive period, something which hadn’t happened in the 19 months of the pandemic. Yet, Vidarbha has not reported any fresh surge in Covid-19 cases.
According to experts, little or no surge in new cases despite the festive rush is a good indicator that the virus is currently not multiplying. At the same time, they said it would be too early to say that the pandemic is turning endemic.
Infectious disease specialist Dr Nitin Shinde said it’s a good sign that cases are still at the baseline. “But, we need to see whether new cases increase in the next two weeks. If they remain low like they are now, it’s a big good news,” he said.
According to Dr Shinde, February 2022 would be the deadline to decisively announce whether it’s an endemic. “The second wave had started in February 2021. If the same trend of low cases continues till February, we can conclude that the pandemic has turned into endemic,” he said.
Member of Covid task force Dr Prashant Joshi cautioned that Covid is not going away in a hurry. “Why is Europe now epicentre despite high vaccination coverage? Look at the history of Covid in countries like China and Russia,” he said.
Stressing that it is not the time to let our guard down, Dr Joshi said the current trend gives us hope that it would become endemic one day, “but not so early”.
As far as Vidarbha is concerned, the number of daily new cases which was in single digit pre-Diwali has reached double digits from November 10. There have been four deaths in the last six days. “However, this small surge cannot be linked only to festivity,” said a senior official from health department.
The number of tests had reduced during pre-Diwali time due to back-to-back holidays. “But, we have resumed the tests post-Diwali. With more tests, many asymptomatic patients are getting detected randomly,” said the official.
General physician Dr Vinit Patil said that there is massive surge in cases of viral infections, cough, cold, and fever in the last 10 days. “But this is not Covid-19. Most of the patients to whom I referred Covid-19 tests returned negative. These are general infections due to weather change. With confusion still high, it’s always better to get tested,” he said.
# Figures can be illusionary
- Pre-Diwali downfall in new cases was due to less testing during holidays
- Post-Diwali, as average number of tests has increased, new cases are up
- So, pre-festivity or post-festivity connection cannot be established so early
- At least next two weeks are crucial, but we must be careful even after that
- New cases, smaller surges are expected now; vaccination only protection