The Bay of Bengal may have seen off one depression that bore down on the North Tamil Nadu and South Andhra Pradesh accompanied by flooding rain on Thursday, but it may well be preparing to host a successor during the ongoing week ending on November 16 (Tuesday ), according to the US Climate Prediction Centre.
India Meteorological Department (IMD) has already declared a watch for a fresh low-pressure area over the South Andaman Sea by Saturday and hinted at its intensification. It is not very usual for depressions to form one after the other in the Bay during this time of the year, according to meteorologists.
Negative IOD weakens
The Bay, in league with the upstream South China Sea/West Pacific, appears to take advantage of the negative phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) that only flattered to deceive. The negative IOD, a ‘low-breaker’ by design and intent, may have started to fall apart, according to global models tracking the phenomenon.
Short-to-medium projections by the IMD model too suggests a strong weather system in the offing but hurtling towards the Andhra Pradesh coast and likely sparing an already flooded North Coastal Tamil Nadu a hit. But Chennai and its neighbourhood would better watch out since the projected landfall of is too close for comfort.
Rainy week ahead
The IMD said the system is likely to move to West-North-West and become ‘more marked’ (intensify) during the subsequent two days. Widespread light to moderate rainfall with isolated heavy falls/thunderstorms may lash Andaman & Nicobar Islands on Saturday and Sunday. Squally weather may prevail over the neighbouring seas.
A similar outlook is held out for the central parts of the South and adjoining Central Bay on Monday and Tuesday. Fishermen are advised not to venture into these areas. An extended outlook by the IMD for November 17-19 predicts light to moderate rainfall at many/most places over the South Peninsula and the Islands.
Isolated to scattered light to moderate rainfall may occur over adjoining Central and East India and South Maharashtra. Isolated heavy falls are also likely over Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana.
Third system in the offing?
The US agency has gone on to predict the likely development of yet another weather system in the Bay during the subsequent week (November 17-23) acting in concert with the South China Sea. Other models, including those of the IMD, are not that optimistic. But a third ‘low’ in quick succession will only go on to prove IMD’s prediction of a November with 122 per cent surplus rain.
Meanwhile Friday morning saw the previous day’s depression weaken to a well-marked low-pressure area over North Tamil Nadu and its neighbourhood. Light to moderate rainfall is likely at most places with heavy rainfall at isolated places over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, South interior Karnataka and Kerala till Saturday.