But crucial draft documents suggest negotiations on climate finance, carbon markets, and loss and damage are still a long way from being resolved
The COP26 Climate Summit negotiations enter a dramatic new phase today, after the UK Presidency published draft texts early this morning setting out plans for how countries can further strengthen climate action so as to 'keep 1.5C alive'.
The Presidency issued two draft texts, titled CP.26 and CMA.3, which are expected to act as the 'cover document' for the technical agreements being thrashed out in Glasgow. They had been slated to be released at midnight, but with Ministers and diplomats once again working through the night they were finally released just before 6am.
The CMA.3 text, which represents the position of all Parties to the Paris Agreement, features a proposed compromise agreement on how countries could strengthen their national climate action plans on a faster timetable than originally planned, through the so-called 'ratchet mechanism' contained in the Paris Treaty.
And in a surprise move, the text also includes a call for governments to "accelerate the phasing-out of coal and subsidies for fossil fuels".
However, analysts warned the draft texts were "sketchier on finance, adaptation, and loss and damage", while significant gaps remain on carbon markets, climate finance commitments, and loss and damage with the document including placeholders that require consultations with national governments and the finalisation of the on-going technical negotiations to be finalised.
Following yesterday's report from the Climate Action Tracker warning current national climate plans put the world on track for around 2.4C of warming, the text reiterates the Paris Agreement's focus on striving to keep temperature increases below 1.5C. It states that governments "recognise that the impacts of climate change will be much lower at the temperature increase of 1.5C compared to 2C and resolves to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5C, recognising that this requires meaningful and effective action by all Parties in this critical decade".
It also specifically references how meeting the 1.5C target requires global emissions to be cut by 45 per cent by 2030 compared to 2010 levels before reaching net zero emissions around mid-century, and as such it "notes with serious concern" the recent UN report suggesting current national climate action plans would see global emissions rise by over 13 per cent by 2030.
As such, the text sets out a series of measures designed to encourage countries to strengthen their national climate action plans, or Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) in the UN jargon.
Specifically, it "urges Parties to revisit and strengthen the 2030 targets in their nationally determined contributions, as necessary to align with the Paris Agreement temperature goal by the end of 2022", noting that making such an update outside of the five year cycles set out in the original Paris Agreement is compatible with Article 4, paragraphs 3 and 11, of the treaty.
The call for countries to update their NDCs is backed by a series of measures designed to ramp up pressure on those governments with currently underpowered plans.
For example, the text announces plans for a "work programme to urgently scale-up mitigation ambition and implementation during the critical decade of the 2020s"; requests that the UN produces an update of its synthesis report tracking the climate impact of NDCs on an annual basis; promises to convene an annual high-level ministerial round table on pre-2030 ambition; and invites the UN Secretary-General to convene world leaders in 2023 to "consider ambition to 2030".
The text also features a surprise call for Parties to "accelerate the phasing-out of coal and subsidies for fossil fuels", marking something of a diplomatic breakthrough given the G20 Summit on the eve of COP26 notably declined to reference long-standing pledges to phase out fossil fuel subsidies.
However, it remains to be seen if the key sections on phasing out fossil fuel subsidies and updating NDCs can be maintained through the next phase of negotiations, given a handful of countries have reportedly been opposed to such moves throughout much of the talks to date. Critics will also note that the text contains no formal changes to the timetable for submitting updated national action plans, with the focus on urging countries to come forward with strengthened plans.
Similarly, negotiations on adaptation, loss and damage, transparency measures for tracking emissions performance, and carbon markets remain a long way from being resolved.
The section on adaptation "notes with serious concern that the current provision of climate finance for adaptation is insufficient to respond to worsening climate change impacts in developing country Parties". But a $350m contribution to the Adaptation Fund and $413m to the Least Developed Countries Fund are included in square brackets, suggesting they are still subject to negotiation, while the text includes a "placeholder for paragraphs on the global goal on adaptation on completion of CMA decision".
The section on Loss and Damage acknowledges that climate change is increasingly causing loss and damage, but the proposed next steps are simply referenced in the text as being subject to the outcomes of Ministerial consultations.
The long-running and reportedly tense negotiations to finalise the Paris Agreement rulebook, including the Article 6 rules governing carbon markets, and introduce an enhanced transparency framework are also referenced only briefly in the text in square brackets.
Reports yesterday suggested Saudi Arabia and China are blocking proposals for a more robust transparency mechanisms to tracking countries' emissions, while negotiations on Article 6 have reportedly made some progress this week but are yet to be finalised.
More to follow...
