CEE MARKETS-Forint eases as inflation jumps above forecasts
By Anita Komuves BUDAPEST, Nov 9 (Reuters) - The forint eased on Tuesday, underperforming its central European peers, as higher-than-expected inflation data increased uncertainty about the pace of rate tightening. The Romanian leu was stable ahead of an expected central bank rate hike later in the day. The forint eased 0.29%, reversing early gains, and was trading at 361.90 per euro after data showed headline inflation jumped to an annual 6.5% in October from 5.5% in September, well above forecasts. The high CPI data challenges the National Bank of Hungary's slow but steady approach to rate tightening after two larger-than-expected hikes by the Czech and Polish central banks. "The market is uncertain because these numbers justify a bigger rate hike, however, investors are not sure whether the central bank is willing to do that, or wants to stick with the 15-basis-point rate hikes," an FX trader in Budapest said. The Romanian central bank was expected to follow its regional peers and continue its rate hikes on Tuesday as a Reuters poll of analysts saw a 50 basis point rate hike to 2% at its meeting later in the day. "We think the NBR's move should be enough to keep EUR/RON trading under 4.95, helped by attractive implied yields. 3m RON implied yields derived through the EUR FX forwards are now 3.60% per annum," ING wrote in a note. Elsewhere, the Czech crown added to its gains, firming 0.29% to 25.190 to the euro, hitting a fresh 21-month-high after a jump last week when the central bank delivered its biggest interest rate hike in nearly a quarter of a century. The Polish zloty eased 0.12% to 4.5935 per euro. The currency kept being pressured by the still unresolved dispute between the Polish government and the European Commission, Bank Millennium wrote. Stocks in the region were mixed, with Prague gaining 0.78% while Warsaw slid 1.06%. Budapest was up 0.45%. CEE SNAPSHO AT MARKETS T 1111 CET CURRENC IES Latest Previous Daily Change bid close change in 2021 EURCZK= Czech <EURCZK= 25.1900 25.2630 +0.29% +4.12 crown > % EURHUF= Hungary <EURHUF= 361.900 361.0500 -0.23% +0.23 forint > 0 % EURPLN= Polish <EURPLN= 4.5935 4.5880 -0.12% -0.75% zloty > EURRON= Romanian <EURRON= 4.9485 4.9487 +0.00% -1.69% leu > EURHRK= Croatian <EURHRK= 7.5180 7.5165 -0.02% +0.39 kuna > % EURRSD= Serbian <EURRSD= 117.500 117.5700 +0.06% +0.06 dinar > 0 % Note: calculated from 1800 daily CET change Latest Previous Daily Change close change in 2021 .PX Prague 1398.81 1388.050 +0.78% +36.1 0 8% .BUX Budapest 54373.8 54132.14 +0.45% +29.1 5 3% .WIG20 Warsaw 2397.93 2423.92 -1.07% +20.8 6% .BETI Buchares 12872.3 12860.05 +0.10% +31.2 t 1 8% .SBITOP Ljubljan <.SBITOP 1206.60 1202.89 +0.31% +33.9 a > 4% .CRBEX Zagreb 2016.30 2011.50 +0.24% +15.9 3% .BELEX1 Belgrade <.BELEX1 810.87 801.84 +1.13% +8.32 5 5> % .SOFIX Sofia 600.44 601.44 -0.17% +34.1 7% Yield Yield Spread Daily (bid) change vs Bund change in Czech spread Republic CZ2YT=R 2-year <CZ2YT=R 3.2680 -0.0230 +400bp -2bps R R> s CZ5YT=R 5-year <CZ5YT=R 2.9220 0.0060 +349bp +1bps R R> s CZ10YT= <CZ10YT= 2.7480 0.0040 +301bp +2bps RR 10-year RR> s Poland PL2YT=R 2-year <PL2YT=R 2.7560 -0.0790 +349bp -8bps R R> s PL5YT=R 5-year <PL5YT=R 2.9030 -0.0130 +347bp -1bps R R> s PL10YT= <PL10YT= 2.9870 0.0000 +325bp +1bps RR 10-year RR> s FORWARD 3x6 6x9 9x12 3M interb ank Czech 3.95 3.84 3.67 3.08 Rep <PRIBOR= > Hungary 3.00 3.43 3.72 2.09 Poland 2.75 3.05 3.16 1.55 Note: are for ask FRA prices quotes ********************************************** **************** (Additional reporting by Pawel Florkiewicz in Warsaw and Luiza Ilie in Bucharest; Editing by Krishna Chandra Eluri)
