Five months can be a long time in politics, as the case of West Bengal shows. Earlier this year, in the run-up to the Assembly elections, the entire Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leadership, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi, campaigned across the State in the hope of forming the government. Five months later, after facing a big loss during those polls, the BJP seems to have lost interest in the State. It has also faced humiliating losses in the bypolls of September and October, which have raised questions about the party’s claims of being a strong opposition to the Trinamool Congress (TMC) in the State.
A clean sweep
In the bypolls held on October 30, the TMC made a clean sweep by winning all four seats — Dinhata, Santipur, Khardaha and Gosaba. It wrested the Dinhata and Santipur seats from the BJP, which had won these seats in May. The TMC’s margins of victory have also been massive: it won the Dinhata Assembly seat in north Bengal by a margin of 1.64 lakh votes and Gosaba in south Bengal by 1.43 lakh votes. The BJP’s candidates lost deposits in three of the four seats as they failed to win one-sixth of the valid votes polled. The party managed to secure only 14.5% of the votes compared to the 38% it received in the Assembly polls five months ago.
In September, the BJP also lost the bypolls to three Assembly seats, including Bhabanipur, from where Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee contested and won. After two rounds of bypolls, the number of TMC MLAs in West Bengal Assembly has increased from 213 to 217 in a 294-member House.
Not only has the TMC won the bypolls to all seven seats, but it has also managed to attract leaders from the BJP. Defectors from the BJP include former Union Minister Babul Supriyo and leaders such as Mukul Roy and Rajib Banerjee. The TMC’s political dominance in Bengal can only be compared to the Left Front’s 34-year dominance, which ended in 2011.
BJP’s brand of politics
The bypolls show a rejection of the BJP’s brand of politics in West Bengal. Before the bypolls held on October 30, the BJP raked up the issue of the recent communal violence in Bangladesh hoping that it would help the party reap electoral dividends. Attempts to polarise the electorate did not work for the BJP in the 2021 Assembly polls and did not work for the party in the bypolls either. In a State with a minority population of 27.01% (2011 Census), the BJP will need to focus on a more constructive approach. The TMC government’s increased focus on cash transfer schemes, the last being ‘Lakshmir Bhandar’, is working well for the party. Adding to the BJP’s woes were the high prices of petrol, diesel and cooking gas, which the TMC leadership never misses an opportunity to point out.
In the run-up to the bypolls, the BJP leadership failed to organise a major political campaign in the State. Despite the fact that the supporters of the party were at the receiving end of the post-poll violence, and the Calcutta High Court directed a probe by Central agencies, the BJP failed to galvanise its supporters on the issue. Moreover, inner party feuds are making matters worse. A few BJP veterans have blamed a section of the Central leadership for the party’s humiliation in the Assembly polls.
In the next few months, hundreds of civic bodies including the Kolkata Municipal Corporation will go to the polls. The Opposition has been demanding polls in these municipalities and municipal corporations for the past couple of years. Unless the BJP comes up with another agenda to counter the TMC’s brand of politics, the regional party’s sway over the political landscape of West Bengal will continue unhindered.
shivsahay.s@thehindu.co.in