Jon Gray’s career has reached a major crossroad.
Although the Rockies’ right-hander has repeatedly expressed his desire to stay in Colorado and believes the team is close to becoming a contender, he’ll soon be free to sign with another team.
Unless Gray and the Rockies reach a deal over the next few days, which is unlikely, he will hit the market Monday when free agency officially begins. There is a possibility Colorado will offer Gray a one-year, $18.4 million qualifying offer for 2022, but that’s a complicated matter.
General manager Bill Schmidt said that the Rockies are “still discussing” whether or not to give Gray a qualifying offer. The deadline for teams to issue the offer is 3 p.m. Sunday. Players have until Nov. 17 to accept or reject the qualifying offer.
The Rockies are also going to offer star shortstop Trevor Story a qualifying offer, which he’s expected to decline and enter free agency. The Rockies will receive a compensatory pick if Story signs elsewhere.
During the last week of the season, the Rockies approached Gray with a contract offer but it was turned down. According to a report in The Athletic, Colorado offered Gray a three-year deal in the range of $35 million to $40 million. Schmidt said that while the Rockies offered Gray a deal, he declined to confirm The Athletic’s numbers.
Major league sources say that although Gray remains interested in the Rockies, he wants to explore his options. In turn, Gray, who turns 30 on Friday, could use offers from other teams to leverage a better deal with Colorado.
Offering Gray the one-year qualifying offer could be problematic for the Rockies, chiefly because Gray would very likely accept it, making him the second-highest-paid player on the team for 2022 behind outfielder Charlie Blackmon ($21.3 million).
Paying Gray $18.4 million for one year could lessen Colorado’s chance to land a power-hitting free-agent outfielder, or might diminish its chance to add a slick-fielding shortstop or quality relief pitcher.
Plus, if Gray were to accept the offer, his salary would be much higher than that of German Márquez ($11.3 million in 2022) and Antonio Senzatela ($7.25 million). Also, the Rockies would like to keep Colorado native Kyle Freeland long-term. The left-hander is projected to make $7 million this season, via arbitration. He’s eligible to become a free agent after the 2023 season, and paying Gray $18.4 million in 2022 would set Freeland’s salary bar high.
That’s not to say that the Rockies don’t believe in Gray. Although he’s had an up-and-down career since Colorado made him the third overall pick in the 2013 draft, he’s proven capable of succeeding at Coors Field.
Among starting pitchers, Gray’s .633 home winning percentage at Coors Field trails only lefty Jorge De La Rosa (.726) and Senzatela (.667). His .257 batting average against is third among Rockies pitchers with at least 40 home starts.
In fact, Gray has acknowledged he might be more valuable to the Rockies than to other teams because of his ability to pitch at altitude. Plus, it’s difficult to lure free-agent pitchers to Colorado and manager Bud Black believes Gray ranks among the top 50 starters in the majors.
“I’ve said this before: You line up 150 major-league starters, and who’s the best? (Jacob) deGrom, (Max) Scherzer, (Walker) Buehler, then you go from there,” Black said toward the end of the season. “And Jon, statistically, he’s probably in the top 50. On a given night, Jon goes out and throws seven innings and strikes out eight.”
Black also likes Gray’s mentality when the right-hander takes the mound at Coors.
“He doesn’t care about altitude,” Black said. “He pitches better at home. How does that happen? Because he’s Jon. He’s not affected by that environment like some guys are.”
KEY MLB DATES
Wednesday: Beginning of a five-day period where teams and players must decide whether to exercise or decline contract options and opt-out clauses for 2022. Eligible free agents cannot sign with anyone but their current team for five days.
Sunday, 3 p.m. MST: Deadline for teams to issue qualifying offers (one-year, $18.4 million contracts) to eligible free agents.
Monday: Free agency officially opens. The Rockies have four free agents — RHPs Jon Gray, Jhoulys Chacin, SS Trevor Story, utility player Chris Owings.
Nov. 8-11: General managers’ meetings (Carlsbad, Calif.)
Nov. 17: Deadline for players to accept or reject qualifying offers.
Nov. 19: Deadline for teams to add players to the 40-man roster and protect them from the Rule 5 draft.
Dec. 1, 11:59 p.m.: Expiration of the current collective bargaining agreement. If MLB and the MLBPA do not agree on a new CBA by then, the owners will likely begin a lockout that freezes teams’ ability to make transactions.
Dec. 2: Deadline for teams to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players.
Dec. 6-9: Winter meetings are scheduled for Orlando, Fla. If the CBA expires, the winter meetings will likely be canceled.
Dec. 8: Rule 5 draft.
